This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Cardano (ADA)
USD 0.1982
USD 1.32
-85.0%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross, vol 1.23x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, RSI weak (40.4), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 30.8)
Low: USD 0.1387
Now: USD 0.1982
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 40.4 | ADX (14) | 30.8 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.2279 | 200d MA | USD 0.2080 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.1835 | Resistance | USD 0.2675 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.19%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ADA | -13.7% | -10.4% | +36.6% | -28.6% |
| BTC | -2.3% | -1.3% | +33.9% | +21.8% |
| ETH | -1.2% | -3.9% | +53.4% | +24.9% |
| SOL | -8.3% | -7.1% | +37.1% | +17.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 12,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ADA | -0.4% | -73.5% | -20.6% | 48 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ADA)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 12,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -28.6% | USD 4,479 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -26.9% | USD 8,773 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -26.9% | USD 8,768 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -22.6% | USD 9,285 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify ADA. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.1835 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.2675 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.1776 (-10.4% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.0103 (5.19%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | USD 0.2448 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | USD 0.2541 | +3.8% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 0.2383 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | USD 0.2480 | +4.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | USD 0.2585 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | USD 0.2543 | -1.6% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | USD 0.2555 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | USD 0.2471 | -3.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 0.2443 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 0.2466 | +0.9% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 0.2463 | |
| 2026-10-16 | SELL | USD 0.2255 | -8.4% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
0.1982 with the 52w high sitting at 1.32. an 85% drawdown and the model still calls it stage 4, i bought one of these golden crosses in the summer and it was a trap
@koppel_kai same, and that 1.23x volume up day means nothing until price gets back above the 50d and 200d. contrarian deep value persona still says bearish, thats telling
2 bullish factors against 7 bearish and one of the bullish ones is the golden cross lol. that cross is doing heavy lifting for a coin down 85% from 1.32