This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Hedera (HBAR)
USD 0.0686
USD 0.4003
-82.9%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (34.7), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 27.2), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.67)
Low: USD 0.0461
Now: USD 0.0686
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 34.7 | ADX (14) | 27.2 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.0866 | 200d MA | USD 0.0805 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.0667 | Resistance | USD 0.0964 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.02%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | -17.9% | -12.4% | -3.4% | -31.7% |
| BTC | -6.7% | -4.6% | +27.7% | +13.5% |
| ETH | -7.5% | -8.8% | +42.6% | +13.9% |
| SOL | -13.6% | -11.6% | +26.4% | +6.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 15,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +19.9% | -63.6% | -31.5% | 43 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 15,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -31.7% | USD 5,814 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -27.8% | USD 10,828 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -30.8% | USD 10,380 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -26.2% | USD 11,064 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify HBAR. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.0667 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.0964 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.0603 (-12.0% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.004129 (6.02%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 0.0904 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | USD 0.0930 | +2.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | USD 0.0955 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | USD 0.0935 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | USD 0.0959 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | USD 0.1219 | +27.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 0.1023 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 0.1047 | +2.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 0.1027 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | USD 0.1025 | -0.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | USD 0.1019 | |
| 2026-10-14 | SELL | USD 0.0844 | -17.2% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
0.0686 against a 52w high of 0.4003 is brutal. hbar holders have been in the trenches for years, respect for still posting lol
support at 0.0667 is barely 3% under spot. that breaks and this bearish read turns into a funeral
the 0.0667 support has already been tapped twice this week. third test usually breaks, and then the bearish call goes from model output to obvious
Trend model backtest at +19.9% while every DCA schedule shown sits down 26 to 31%. That gap is the whole argument for not holding through a downtrend.
backtest +19.9% vs DCA bags down 26-31% and people will still tell you to keep buying the dip. the math does not care about your feelings about hedera
0.0686 against a 52w high of 0.4003 and the monitor still says trend, not bottom. thats the part that gets me, no reversal signal anywhere in this print