This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM)
USD 1.11
USD 1.84
-39.8%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (30.9), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 37.8), vol 2.04x on down day
Low: USD 0.000800
Now: USD 1.11
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 30.9 | ADX (14) | 37.8 |
| 50d MA | USD 1.37 | 200d MA | USD 1.07 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 1.08 | Resistance | USD 1.52 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.09%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| GRAM | -18.2% | -20.7% | -30.3% | +41393.2% |
| BTC | -6.7% | -4.6% | +27.7% | +13.5% |
| ETH | -7.5% | -8.8% | +42.6% | +13.9% |
| SOL | -13.6% | -11.6% | +26.4% | +6.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 30,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| GRAM | -74.9% | +31703.1% | -78.6% | 36 | 22% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (GRAM)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 30,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +41393.2% | USD 10,619,021 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +37217.8% | USD 11,195,338 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +32664.3% | USD 9,829,295 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +31609.7% | USD 9,512,921 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify GRAM. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 1.08 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 1.52 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.9932 (-10.2% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.0563 (5.09%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-04-16 | BUY | USD 0.002300 | |
| 2026-04-17 | SELL | USD 0.001900 | -18.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | USD 0.003100 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | USD 0.002200 | -27.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | USD 0.002300 | |
| 2026-05-01 | SELL | USD 0.002200 | -7.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | BUY | USD 1.50 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | USD 1.46 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | USD 1.45 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | USD 1.38 | -4.7% |
| 2026-10-09 | BUY | USD 1.45 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | USD 1.36 | -6.5% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
toncoin quietly rebranding to gram and nobody batted an eye lol. $1.11 after a -39.8% drawdown from the 52w high, calling it stage 1 bottoming is generous
2 bullish vs 8 bearish factors and the model still says neutral? the golden cross and holding above the 200d are doing some heavy lifting there
The slide from $1.84 to $1.11 tracks with the broader L1 cooldown. I want to see whether this Stage 1 base actually holds before adding anything.