This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Tether Gold (XAUT)
USD 4,049.18
USD 5,597.10
-27.7%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: MACD+, RSI healthy (50.5), strong bull trend (ADX 29.7), vol 1.51x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.65)
Low: USD 2,552.97
Now: USD 4,049.18
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 50.5 | ADX (14) | 29.7 |
| 50d MA | USD 4,131.50 | 200d MA | USD 4,287.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 3,868.74 | Resistance | USD 4,204.42 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.45%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| XAUT | -2.5% | -8.6% | -0.0% | -23.7% |
| BTC | -6.7% | -4.6% | +27.7% | +13.5% |
| ETH | -7.5% | -8.8% | +42.6% | +13.9% |
| SOL | -13.6% | -11.6% | +26.4% | +6.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 12,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| XAUT | +24.4% | +21.3% | -11.6% | 38 | 37% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (XAUT)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 12,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -23.7% | USD 12,197 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -9.0% | USD 10,916 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -9.2% | USD 10,895 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -7.7% | USD 11,073 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify XAUT. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 3,868.74 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 4,204.42 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 3,932.11 (-2.9% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 58.54 (1.45%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | USD 4,384.02 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | USD 4,470.55 | +2.0% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | USD 4,427.85 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | USD 4,427.17 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | USD 4,416.91 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | USD 4,418.60 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | USD 4,352.34 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | USD 4,392.68 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | USD 4,349.70 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | USD 4,349.93 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | USD 4,374.85 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | USD 4,374.18 | -0.0% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
the digital gold is down 27.7% from its high with a death cross and OBV distribution. my uncle stacking physical bars is laughing at XAUT holders rn lol
RSI at 50.5 and ADX 29.7 says this downtrend still has legs. Below both the 4,131 and 4,287 averages, I would wait for a reclaim of 4,204 before touching this.
^ the 50d falling plus vol ratio 0.65 is the part that gets me. who is distributing a gold token on 1.51x volume on an up day