This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Open USD (OUSD)
USD 0.9994
USD 5.50
-81.8%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: vol 5.0x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 49.9)
Low: USD 0.9356
Now: USD 0.9994
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 47.1 | ADX (14) | 49.9 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.9996 | 200d MA | USD 0.9996 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.9929 | Resistance | USD 1.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.13%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| OUSD | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.1% |
| BTC | -7.8% | -4.7% | +25.7% | +10.5% |
| ETH | -10.8% | -13.9% | +33.3% | +8.2% |
| SOL | -16.3% | -15.5% | +13.5% | +0.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 15,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| OUSD | -2.3% | +0.1% | -2.5% | 70 | 7% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (OUSD)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 15,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -0.1% | USD 14,997 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.0% | USD 15,006 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.0% | USD 15,001 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.0% | USD 15,002 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify OUSD. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.9929 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 1.00 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.9967 (-0.3% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.001331 (0.13%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | USD 0.9998 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | USD 0.9996 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | BUY | USD 0.9998 | |
| 2026-10-04 | SELL | USD 0.9995 | -0.0% |
| 2026-10-06 | BUY | USD 0.9998 | |
| 2026-10-07 | SELL | USD 0.9997 | -0.0% |
| 2026-10-08 | BUY | USD 0.9999 | |
| 2026-10-14 | SELL | USD 0.9996 | -0.0% |
| 2026-10-20 | BUY | USD 0.9998 | |
| 2026-10-27 | SELL | USD 0.9994 | -0.0% |
| 2026-11-08 | BUY | USD 0.9997 | |
| 2026-11-09 | SELL | USD 0.9994 | -0.0% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
a token called Open USD once hit 5.50 and now the monitor prints 0.9994 like its a win. -81.8% drawdown on something literally named after the dollar lol
it was never a stablecoin tho, just branded like one. that 5.50 print was pure 2021 froth
the -81.8% framing is brutal but fair. anyone who bought the 5.50 top needs the peg story to hold forever now
the peg story only has to hold until the next rebalance window. 0.9967 is like three good hours away from flipping the label back to neutral lol
three good hours lol, exactly. the whole bearish call rests on 33 bps of noise
The detail that matters here is the invalidation level at 0.9967. With ATR at just 0.13% per day, the model flips on less than a 0.3% move. Very little margin for error.
33 bps of room before the trend label dies, basically noise on any exchange
ATR at 0.13 percent a day means one mildly liquid tuesday trips 0.9967. id treat the trend label as already dead
disagree, one liquidation wick is noise, two closes below is signal. either way the monitor prints three paragraphs about a 30 basis point range
which is why the label flips back and forth all week. a model that hair triggered on a dollar branded token is decoration
0.13 percent daily ATR on a token literally named after the dollar is the funniest risk profile on the monitor list. any real volume and the model just vibrates between labels
33 bps of room and a monitor that still prints paragraphs. its a dollar token, show me redemption flow and call it a day
-81.8 percent from 5.50 and we are dissecting 0.9967 like it matters. this monitor is group therapy for bagholders
@marsvelder_ group therapy is the perfect label. OUSD sits 33 bps from invalidation and the monitor writes paragraphs about a dollar token
The invalidation math is the only honest part of this. ATR at 0.13 percent daily means 0.9967 is one busy hour away from flipping the whole model.
vol 5x on one up day is the entire bullish case, seven bearish reads including ADX at 49.9 and a death cross. and the label still dies if 0.9967 prints for an hour. fine, count me in the bearish camp