This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Filecoin (FIL)
USD 0.7414
USD 8.38
-91.2%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (32.8), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 36.8), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.5)
Low: USD 0.6140
Now: USD 0.7414
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 32.8 | ADX (14) | 36.8 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.9920 | 200d MA | USD 0.8647 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.7307 | Resistance | USD 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 8.51%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | -28.1% | -12.3% | -4.0% | -27.6% |
| BTC | -11.5% | -6.4% | +19.4% | +1.0% |
| ETH | -16.9% | -18.1% | +19.8% | -4.3% |
| SOL | -22.7% | -20.3% | +2.1% | -9.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 12,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -5.0% | -73.1% | -25.5% | 46 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 12,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -27.6% | USD 3,997 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -28.0% | USD 8,637 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -30.7% | USD 8,320 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -24.8% | USD 9,019 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify FIL. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.7307 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 1.26 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.6152 (-17.0% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.0631 (8.51%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 0.9353 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | USD 0.9904 | +5.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | USD 1.05 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | USD 1.14 | +8.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | USD 1.14 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | USD 1.06 | -6.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 1.04 | -1.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 1.02 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | USD 1.03 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | USD 1.07 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 0.9776 | -8.4% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
1 bullish factor out of 10 and its the golden cross while price sits under both the 50d and 200d? that crossover is doing a LOT of heavy lifting lol
golden cross on the daily got whipsawed before too. backtests that exclude fees always make these trend models look cleaner than live trading ever is
RSI at 32.8 with support holding at 0.7307. If that level breaks, the invalidation zone at 0.6152 comes into play fast. Watching from the sidelines on this one.
agree on watching 0.7307, but a 17% gap down to invalidation feels generous for a coin that already bled from 1.26