This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Stacks (STX)
USD 0.3093
USD 0.4343
-28.8%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, RSI weak (43.0), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.78)
Low: USD 0.1199
Now: USD 0.3093
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 43.0 | ADX (14) | 16.2 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.3488 | 200d MA | USD 0.2392 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 0.2781 | Resistance | USD 0.4343 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.91%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| STX | -13.0% | +14.0% | +85.8% | +4.3% |
| BTC | -11.5% | -6.4% | +19.4% | +1.0% |
| ETH | -16.9% | -18.1% | +19.8% | -4.3% |
| SOL | -22.7% | -20.3% | +2.1% | -9.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 15,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| STX | +1.2% | +31.9% | -30.5% | 14 | 57% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (STX)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 15,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +4.3% | USD 19,790 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +63.4% | USD 24,514 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +59.3% | USD 23,900 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +53.4% | USD 23,005 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify STX. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.2781 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.4343 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.2851 (-7.8% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.0121 (3.91%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | USD 0.2637 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | USD 0.2348 | -11.0% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | USD 0.2429 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | USD 0.2512 | +3.4% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | USD 0.2845 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | USD 0.3151 | +10.8% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | USD 0.3346 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | USD 0.3419 | +2.2% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 0.3351 | |
| 2026-10-23 | SELL | USD 0.3221 | -3.9% |
| 2026-11-05 | BUY | USD 0.3599 | |
| 2026-11-06 | SELL | USD 0.3374 | -6.3% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
adx at 16 and the monitor still calls it stage 1 bottoming lol. that -6.3% on the nov 6 sell is the only thing that printed lately
tbf the sep 20 sell was +10.8% but two red trades in a row since, momentum is basically flatlining
Below the 50d at 0.3488 but above the 200d at 0.2392. Range-bound until ADX wakes up, the neutral call looks right to me.