Bitcoin options traders are making increasingly aggressive bets that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could shatter its all-time high before the end of 2020. On September 14, 2020, data from analytics firm Skew.com revealed a remarkable surge in call options well above Bitcoin’s previous peak, signaling growing institutional confidence in a major price breakout.
TL;DR
- Skew.com data shows 752 open positions for $36K Bitcoin calls expiring in December 2020
- Additional 462 contracts for $32K and 230 for $28K — all above the 2017 ATH of $19,600
- Deribit dominates with approximately 79% of total BTC options open interest
- $750 million in open interest outstanding for end-of-September expiry alone
- CME options market shows five calls for every two puts, confirming bullish sentiment
Record Call Options Signal Institutional Confidence
The most striking development on September 14 was the sheer volume of far out-of-the-money call options being traded on Deribit, the leading crypto derivatives platform. According to Skew.com, the most active Bitcoin options contracts were calls for $28,000, $32,000, and $36,000 — all set to expire in December 2020. Each of these strike prices towers above Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of approximately $19,600, reached in mid-December 2017.
The breakdown of open positions tells a compelling story: 752 contracts for the $36K strike, 462 for $32K, and 230 for $28K. These are not casual trades. Each represents a significant wager that Bitcoin will not only recover but dramatically exceed its prior record within just a few months.
Deribit Dominance and Market Structure
Deribit continues to be the undisputed leader in Bitcoin options trading. In its August 2020 newsletter, the exchange noted that despite growing competition, it maintains approximately 79% of the total BTC options open interest. This concentration means Deribit’s order book serves as a reliable proxy for overall market sentiment among derivatives traders.
The activity on September 14 follows a significant options expiry event on August 28, when $570 million in notional value of BTC options contracts expired on Deribit. Rather than dampening enthusiasm, the expiry appears to have cleared the way for a new wave of aggressive positioning.
Looking ahead, Skew.com highlighted that $750 million in open interest was already outstanding for the end-of-September expiry, describing the market as “gearing up towards a pretty chunky bitcoin options expiry at the end of the month.”
CME Data Confirms Bullish Bias
The bullish sentiment extends beyond crypto-native platforms. Data from CME Group’s Bitcoin options market, analyzed by Ecoinometrics, shows that calls continue to dominate with a ratio of five calls for every two puts. While some traders are buying front-month puts as short-term protection, the overall skew remains firmly bullish.
As Ecoinometrics noted in their September 9 analysis, Bitcoin appeared to be flipping its former resistance level at $10,000 into support. “For seven days now $10,000 is holding strong,” they observed — a technical development that likely emboldened options traders to reach for higher strike prices.
Macro Backdrop Adds Fuel
The options surge is unfolding against a backdrop of significant macroeconomic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting was scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday of that week, with investors watching closely for signals on monetary policy. The upcoming U.S. presidential election added another layer of uncertainty to traditional markets, potentially driving more capital toward Bitcoin as a hedge.
On the spot market, Bitcoin rose more than 4% during the day’s trading sessions, approaching the $11,000 level once again. The price action confirmed the bullish narrative being painted by the options market, with the cryptocurrency firmly established above the psychologically important $10,000 threshold.
Why This Matters
The concentration of call options at such ambitious strike prices reflects a fundamental shift in market psychology. Traders are not merely hoping for a recovery — they are positioning for a parabolic move that would dwarf anything seen since 2017. Whether these bets pay off remains to be seen, but the sheer volume of open interest at $28K, $32K, and $36K suggests that a significant portion of the derivatives market believes Bitcoin is on the verge of a historic breakout. For investors, this data point serves as both a sentiment indicator and a reminder that institutional participation in crypto derivatives has reached unprecedented levels.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
752 contracts at $36K when BTC was under $11K. Those degens either got liquidated or retired. No in between.
752 contracts at $36K with BTC under $11K. those traders were either clairvoyant or got wrecked. history says the latter
vol_archivist 752 contracts at 36K with BTC under 11K. those traders read the fed money printing thesis correctly but got the timeline wrong by one quarter
vol_archivist 752 contracts at 36K with BTC under 11K was pure lottery ticket buying. retail was traumatized from the March 2020 crash to 3.8K and institutions were the only ones with conviction
752 open contracts for 36K calls when BTC was under 11K. those traders saw the institutional wave months before MicroStrategy announced anything
CME showing 5 calls for every 2 puts was the tell. institutions werent hedging, they were loading up on upside
December 2020 calls at $36K and BTC hit $29K by end of December. Close but no cigar for those contracts. Expired worthless.
750M in OI for a single september expiry in 2020 was enormous. now we see billions expiring every friday and nobody blinks
5:1 call to put ratio on CME. Institutions were not hedging, they were chasing. That ratio tells you everything about Q3 2020 sentiment.
Emeka Okafor 5:1 call to put ratio looks bullish in hindsight but in sept 2020 most people thought we were going back to 3K. institutions were early, retail was traumatized. same pattern every cycle
quant_frog_ retail being traumatized from the covid crash is exactly why the 36K calls were cheap. institutional buyers were picking up cheap vol from scared sellers
deribit having 79 percent of options OI meant those 36K calls were basically a single venue bet. concentration risk on top of price risk
462 contracts at 32K and 230 at 28K. the further OTM you go the fewer contracts. smart money was actually closer to the money
CME 5 calls for every 2 puts was the loudest institutional signal of 2020. CME options are almost entirely institutional and that ratio screamed accumulation. retail missed it completely
752 contracts is tiny compared to what deribit sees now. today a single whale throws 500 contracts on a friday for fun. the options market grew 100x since this article
Pavel K. 752 contracts seems small now but Deribit OI was under 1B back then. today its 20B+. the options market grew 20x in 5 years
CME showing 5 calls for every 2 puts in Sep 2020. institutions were screaming bullish while retail was still traumatized from the covid crash
CME at 5 calls for every 2 puts was the institutional tell. retail was traumatized from the march covid crash while funds were loading up on cheap vol
752 contracts at 36K when BTC was under 11K. those traders read the money printing thesis right but were a quarter early. the March 2021 calls at 50K were where the actual money was made
Rasmus L. being early on options is the same as being wrong. Dec 36K calls expired worthless and those same desks rolled to March and caught the actual run. one expiry doesnt kill the macro thesis
752 contracts at 36K when BTC was under 11K and people called it crazy. those same traders were loading 50K calls by January. the smart money was reading the fed balance sheet
Sang-woo K. 752 contracts is literally nothing in todays market. Deribit OI is 20B plus now. those traders were early but the position sizes were tiny compared to institutional flows in 2024
CME 5 calls for every 2 puts was the real signal. retail was traumatized from the March covid crash while funds were aggressively loading upside. classic smart money vs retail divergence