Deep Dive Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
2026-08-30 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
78132.30
78132.30
52W HIGH
126198.07
126198.07
DRAWDOWN
-38.1%
-38.1%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 40.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.64)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
BTC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 88344.00
Low: 52598.70
Now: 78132.30
Low: 52598.70
Now: 78132.30
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 72.2 | ADX (14) | 40.4 |
| 50d MA | 66727.79 | 200d MA | 69264.63 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 62226.58 | Resistance | 81235.03 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.88%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| BTC | +20.4% | +30.2% | +5.8% | -11.6% |
| BTC | +20.4% | +30.2% | +5.8% | -11.6% |
| ETH | +28.5% | +55.9% | +8.5% | -17.4% |
| SOL | +42.6% | +46.1% | +25.6% | -16.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,295
RETURN
-4.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| BTC | -4.7% | -5.5% | -25.7% | 66 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (BTC)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -11.6% | 10,811 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -4.2% | 14,366 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -4.1% | 14,384 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -3.2% | 14,518 |
BTC Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 69253.03 (-11.4%) |
| Target 1 | 83751.00 (7.2%) |
| Target 2 | 87123.00 (11.5%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.76) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | 64880.19 | |
| 2026-08-08 | SELL | 64904.69 | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | 64844.89 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | 63910.59 | -1.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | BUY | 63402.43 | |
| 2026-08-13 | SELL | 63402.17 | -0.0% |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | 64506.25 | |
| 2026-08-18 | SELL | 64680.71 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 69266.19 | |
| 2026-08-20 | SELL | 73032.76 | +5.4% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 78132.30 | |
| END | SELL | 78132.30 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-30 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Tomas says BUY with high conviction and still lists a death cross in the bear column. 38% below the high and RSI at 72, brave call
the death cross is lagging data, price is above both the 50d at 66727 and the 200d at 69264, thats what actually matters here
system says BUY with the death cross still on the chart. 7 bull factors tho, i guess adx 40 dont lie
Death cross is a lagging indicator, price above both the 50d and 200d matters more here. The 66.7k 50d rising is the real signal imo
rsi 72 and they still call it a pullback entry quality lol. buying 38% off the high is fine but this reads like fomo with extra steps
at least the 25% cash buffer and 2 tranche plan is sane. most of these signal posts would tell you to yolo the full 15k at 78k
the DCA table says everything. lump sum a year ago sits at 10811, down 11.6%, while 12 buys only lost 3.2%. spreading entries wins in this tape
resistance at 81235 is like 1.5% overhead from 78132. id rather wait for the breakout than chase here lol