Deep Dive Analysis
EURC (EURC)
2026-08-30 09:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.16
1.16
52W HIGH
1.20
1.20
DRAWDOWN
-3.9%
-3.9%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, rising 1m & 3m, within 10% of high, strong bull trend (ADX 47.0), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.68)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-
EURC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.17
Low: 1.01
Now: 1.16
Low: 1.01
Now: 1.16
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 47.5 | ADX (14) | 47.0 |
| 50d MA | 1.15 | 200d MA | 1.16 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.14 | Resistance | 1.17 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.41%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| EURC | +0.2% | +1.7% | -1.3% | -1.1% |
| BTC | +20.4% | +30.2% | +5.8% | -11.6% |
| ETH | +28.5% | +55.9% | +8.5% | -17.4% |
| SOL | +42.6% | +46.1% | +25.6% | -16.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,171
RETURN
+1.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-5.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| EURC | +1.4% | +6.0% | -5.3% | 55 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (EURC)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -1.1% | 11,896 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -0.9% | 11,892 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -0.7% | 11,915 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.5% | 11,941 |
EURC Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.15 (-0.8%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-13.6%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-13.6%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-14 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-08-15 | SELL | 1.16 | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-16 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-08-17 | SELL | 1.16 | +0.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | 1.17 | +0.9% |
| 2026-08-23 | BUY | 1.17 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 1.17 | -0.1% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 1.17 | |
| 2026-08-26 | SELL | 1.17 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 1.17 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 1.16 | -0.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-30 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ADX at 47 on a euro stablecoin is wild. the system found a trend in something pegged near 1.17
its fake trend strength tbh, ADX gets confused by mean reversion inside a tight peg range
stablecopium lmao ADX 47 on a euro peg. the system found momentum in the one asset designed to have none
55 trades, 33% win rate, +1.4% total. the backtest is literally telling you to do nothing lmao
55 trades to net 1.4 percent is the backtest admitting defeat. cheaper to leave it in a circle account and touch grass
defeat implies it tried. +1.4% over 55 round trips inside a 1.14 to 1.17 band is the bot paying itself an allowance
+1.4 percent over 55 round trips and the writeup still calls it a strategy. the 1.14 floor did all the work, the bot did the paperwork
the bot and the hold call agree then, +1.4% over 55 trades is just the peg wobbling. thats the whole point of a 1.14 to 1.17 band
3.9% drawdown triggering a HOLD feels harsh when the whole range is basically 1.14 to 1.17. tiny bands on this one
33% win rate over 55 trades for 1.4% while buy and hold did 6%. why run the bot at all
right, and the writeup frames that 1.4 percent like a feature. buy and hold doing 6 while the bot grinds 55 trades is the whole review
the bot exists so the desk can justify the fee. nobody buys a hold signal, they buy the idea the system is watching
a 3.9 dd on something trading like a savings account is exactly why the bot exists i guess. still not touching it, the attestation comment upthread is more useful than the signal itself
the bot exists to justify its own invoice, agreed. 12k on a 1.16 peg is a savings account with extra steps
the wallet composition table moves first, then the redemption line, then the 200d breaks. three tells and the free alpha is gone
redemption line moving first is the one to watch. circle doesnt shrink that line without a reason
saving this checklist. which report section has the wallet composition table, the attestation pdf is 40 pages of nothing
a euro stablecoin sitting below its 200d at 1.16 is mildly terrifying if you think about what that implies for redemption flow
^ 3.9% drawdown on a stablecoin in a year, wild. hold is the only sane call with support at 1.14
terrifying is strong but a fiat backed token under its 200d for weeks does say something about european redemption demand. circle prints that report monthly, worth a look
been reading those attestations since january, the redemption line moves about a week before the 200d does. free alpha nobody opens
which attestation line do you track specifically? been reading the circle eurc reports and the wallet composition table might as well be greek
if eurc keeps redemption flow tight the peg holds, its the offshore euro lines that should scare you. below the 200d is noise on a 1.16 print
HOLD on a euro stablecoin is the correct answer to a question nobody asked
support at 1.14 holding all year while the analysis agonizes over ADX 47 on a peg. just hold it and go outside