Deep Dive Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
2026-08-30 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
78132.30
78132.30
52W HIGH
126198.07
126198.07
DRAWDOWN
-38.1%
-38.1%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 40.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.64)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
BTC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 88344.00
Low: 52598.70
Now: 78132.30
Low: 52598.70
Now: 78132.30
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 72.2 | ADX (14) | 40.4 |
| 50d MA | 66727.79 | 200d MA | 69264.63 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 62226.58 | Resistance | 81235.03 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.88%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| BTC | +20.4% | +30.2% | +5.8% | -11.6% |
| BTC | +20.4% | +30.2% | +5.8% | -11.6% |
| ETH | +28.5% | +55.9% | +8.5% | -17.4% |
| SOL | +42.6% | +46.1% | +25.6% | -16.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,295
RETURN
-4.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| BTC | -4.7% | -5.5% | -25.7% | 66 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (BTC)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -11.6% | 10,811 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -4.2% | 14,366 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -4.1% | 14,384 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -3.2% | 14,518 |
BTC Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 69253.03 (-11.4%) |
| Target 1 | 83751.00 (7.2%) |
| Target 2 | 87123.00 (11.5%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.76) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | 64880.19 | |
| 2026-08-08 | SELL | 64904.69 | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | 64844.89 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | 63910.59 | -1.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | BUY | 63402.43 | |
| 2026-08-13 | SELL | 63402.17 | -0.0% |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | 64506.25 | |
| 2026-08-18 | SELL | 64680.71 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 69266.19 | |
| 2026-08-20 | SELL | 73032.76 | +5.4% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 78132.30 | |
| END | SELL | 78132.30 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-30 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Tomas says BUY with high conviction and still lists a death cross in the bear column. 38% below the high and RSI at 72, brave call
the death cross is lagging data, price is above both the 50d at 66727 and the 200d at 69264, thats what actually matters here
adx at 40 with price grinding under the 200d at 69264, that trend strength argument is doing heavy lifting for a BUY rating
grinding under the 200d at 69264 while calling it trend strength, yeah the 81235 wall is the actual thesis here
system says BUY with the death cross still on the chart. 7 bull factors tho, i guess adx 40 dont lie
Death cross is a lagging indicator, price above both the 50d and 200d matters more here. The 66.7k 50d rising is the real signal imo
fair point on the death cross lagging, but RSI 72 into a 15k deployment still means staggered entries, not a single buy button
rsi 72 and they still call it a pullback entry quality lol. buying 38% off the high is fine but this reads like fomo with extra steps
at least the 25% cash buffer and 2 tranche plan is sane. most of these signal posts would tell you to yolo the full 15k at 78k
fomo with extra steps is my whole strategy at this point tbh. half size and stop complaining works too
the DCA table says everything. lump sum a year ago sits at 10811, down 11.6%, while 12 buys only lost 3.2%. spreading entries wins in this tape
also the 6-tranche row only trails the 12-buy plan by like half a percent. if you are nervous enough to need 12 entries just run 6 and keep powder for a retest of the low 70s
half a percent over 12 entries, yeah, but you also sleep at night. not everyone can watch charts for the retest you keep mentioning
the DCA table is the most honest part of these writeups lol. lump sum at 10811 down 11.6% vs 12 buys at minus 3.2, spreads always win in chop
minus 3.2 on 12 buys only wins in chop. in a breakout you pay 4 more percent for the same bag, spreads arent free lunch
minus 3.2 on 12 buys also bleeds 4 percent in a fast breakout. spreads are insurance and insurance aint free in either direction
resistance at 81235 is like 1.5% overhead from 78132. id rather wait for the breakout than chase here lol
waiting for the breakout means paying 4% more once 81235 clears with volume. that is the classic trap with momentum calls, you lose the good entry to avoid the risk
the trap only traps you if volume confirms the break and you chase. half now half on retest solves it, same as tomas ran it
Waiting for the 81235 breakout cost me the last 6% leg up. At some point you just accept worse R:R and deploy like Tomas did here.
the adx 40 argument only holds until volume dries up. seen this exact setup in late 2025, trend strength looked bulletproof right up until it wasnt
conviction BUY at 78132 while we sit 38% under the 52w high of 126198. rsi 72 plus a death cross in the bear column, brave combo. adx 40 carrying the whole thesis tbh
adx 40 also died the second funding flipped in feb. the 81235 wall overhead is doing more work than any indicator in this writeup
the 81235 wall only matters if thats also where you take profit. stop under 69264 and target the reclaim, the wall is the exit not the entry
am i the only one who read the deployment plan as 6 tranches? tomas basically DCA-maxed the whole thing, suits me fine