Deep Dive Analysis
Solana (SOL)
2026-08-30 16:01 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
106.80
106.80
52W HIGH
294.33
294.33
DRAWDOWN
-63.7%
-63.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 45.5), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 3.0)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
SOL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 125.99
Low: 60.41
Now: 106.80
Low: 60.41
Now: 106.80
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 76.7 | ADX (14) | 45.5 |
| 50d MA | 80.19 | 200d MA | 81.69 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 70.69 | Resistance | 110.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.29%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SOL | +40.6% | +51.7% | +25.2% | -15.2% |
| BTC | +21.4% | +31.5% | +3.9% | -11.1% |
| ETH | +29.3% | +57.6% | +7.0% | -17.5% |
| SOL | +40.6% | +51.7% | +25.2% | -15.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,732
RETURN
-15.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-42.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SOL | -15.1% | -14.8% | -42.7% | 56 | 45% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SOL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -15.2% | 7,897 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -3.2% | 14,516 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -1.4% | 14,795 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.3% | 15,038 |
SOL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 85.48 (-20.0%) |
| Target 1 | 118.00 (10.5%) |
| Target 2 | 125.00 (17.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.64) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-26 | BUY | 76.60 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 74.14 | -3.2% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 75.97 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 76.21 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 75.95 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | 76.20 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 76.18 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 75.33 | -1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | 77.03 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | 85.37 | +10.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 104.13 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 106.80 | +2.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-30 16:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
a backtest that loses 15 percent in a bear tape is the sell filter doing its job. you want the system flat when the trend is down, thats the feature
RSI at 76.7 and their own sell trigger is 82. brave to be deploying 3750 this close to the line
Correct me if im wrong but the 2y backtest ended at 12,732 from 15k. The system lost money and the verdict is still DEPLOY with high conviction?
@Ilkka the strategy basically matched buy and hold (-15.1 vs -14.8) with a 45% win rate. its a trend report not a money printer, read the methodology line
matching buy and hold through a bear tape with a 45 percent win rate is fine for a trend report. the value is the risk framing, not the raw return
12,732 from 15k while sitting mostly flat through the worst of it is the point though. same endpoint as buy and hold without riding the 63 percent hole, check max DD not just the last number
max DD crowd keeps winning this argument and nobody wants to admit it. 12,732 ending balance with the 63 percent hole avoided is the whole pitch of the system, not a footnote
Matched buy and hold without the 63 percent hole is also how you stay solvent enough to take the next trade. Survivability is a return.
RSI 76.7, death cross on the bear side, entry quality literally says Extended with R:R 0.64. and the conviction is still HIGH. ill wait for the pullback to 80
waiting for 80 on something doing 4.3 percent ATR days is how you miss it in both directions. half now, half on the retest is the adult compromise
half now half at 80 works until the 4.3 percent ATR days gap it to 130 and you are left explaining why the second half never filled
half now half at 80 means you only get the second fill in the version where you were wrong about the trend. thats not a compromise, thats averaging into your own mistake
or the second fill is a better price on a trend you already believe in. both framings are true, which is why DCA threads never end lol
the 12 buy ladder is the system agreeing with you btw. it doesnt trust its own entry either, it just prices that doubt in 12 steps
the 2y backtest LOST 15% on a system meant to catch trends. 56 trades, 45% win rate, fees ate everyone alive
same system printed +41.8% on TRX tho. SOL at 4.3% ATR per day just chews through MA crossovers
45 percent win rate ate by fees is ugly, but the comparison was buy and hold at minus 14.8. matched a disaster without the 63 percent hole, faint praise and still praise
matched buy and hold without the 63 percent hole is not faint praise, its the entire reason anyone runs a system. being able to sleep counts
DCA with 12 buys basically saved the portfolio (+0.3%) while lump sum a year ago was -15.2%. slowly is the only way ive done it since 2022
entry at 106 after a 40 percent month with R:R 0.64 is paying retail prices for whale entries. system called the trend fine, the timing is the crime
R:R 0.64 on a trend follower is normal, you pay up for confirmation. the 45 percent win rate across 56 trades is the number id actually argue about
7 bull factors and the only two bear ones are the death cross and being 63 percent off the high. ADX 45.5 makes you forget your bag is still underwater from 294
106.80 entry with the death cross still live feels aggressive but the ADX 45.5 read says the trend already decided. splitting the buys around it and letting the 15k breathe
SOL at 106.80, RSI 76.7, R:R 0.64 and the verdict machine still stamps HIGH conviction. the system reads the trend fine, the label printer needs a holiday
label printer on permanent overtime lol. RSI 76.7 with R:R 0.64 is the system saying trend yes, entry price maybe ask again