Deep Dive Analysis
Solana (SOL)
2026-08-30 16:01 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
106.80
106.80
52W HIGH
294.33
294.33
DRAWDOWN
-63.7%
-63.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 45.5), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 3.0)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
SOL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 125.99
Low: 60.41
Now: 106.80
Low: 60.41
Now: 106.80
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 76.7 | ADX (14) | 45.5 |
| 50d MA | 80.19 | 200d MA | 81.69 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 70.69 | Resistance | 110.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.29%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SOL | +40.6% | +51.7% | +25.2% | -15.2% |
| BTC | +21.4% | +31.5% | +3.9% | -11.1% |
| ETH | +29.3% | +57.6% | +7.0% | -17.5% |
| SOL | +40.6% | +51.7% | +25.2% | -15.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,732
RETURN
-15.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-42.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SOL | -15.1% | -14.8% | -42.7% | 56 | 45% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SOL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -15.2% | 7,897 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -3.2% | 14,516 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -1.4% | 14,795 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.3% | 15,038 |
SOL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 85.48 (-20.0%) |
| Target 1 | 118.00 (10.5%) |
| Target 2 | 125.00 (17.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.64) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-26 | BUY | 76.60 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 74.14 | -3.2% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 75.97 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 76.21 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 75.95 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | 76.20 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 76.18 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 75.33 | -1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | 77.03 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | 85.37 | +10.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 104.13 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 106.80 | +2.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-30 16:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
RSI at 76.7 and their own sell trigger is 82. brave to be deploying 3750 this close to the line
Correct me if im wrong but the 2y backtest ended at 12,732 from 15k. The system lost money and the verdict is still DEPLOY with high conviction?
@Ilkka the strategy basically matched buy and hold (-15.1 vs -14.8) with a 45% win rate. its a trend report not a money printer, read the methodology line
RSI 76.7, death cross on the bear side, entry quality literally says Extended with R:R 0.64. and the conviction is still HIGH. ill wait for the pullback to 80
the 2y backtest LOST 15% on a system meant to catch trends. 56 trades, 45% win rate, fees ate everyone alive
same system printed +41.8% on TRX tho. SOL at 4.3% ATR per day just chews through MA crossovers
DCA with 12 buys basically saved the portfolio (+0.3%) while lump sum a year ago was -15.2%. slowly is the only way ive done it since 2022