Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-09-25 08:30 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 5 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, RSI healthy (58.0), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 83.0), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.44)
Bearish factors: far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 58.0 | ADX (14) | 83.0 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.05%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +16.6% | +45.8% | -2.8% | -27.1% |
| BTC | +6.0% | +31.7% | +9.0% | -11.2% |
| ETH | +9.6% | +44.8% | +26.6% | -18.6% |
| SOL | +15.1% | +58.9% | +37.8% | -18.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,460
RETURN
-71.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-71.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -71.8% | -51.4% | -71.8% | 51 | 6% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -27.1% | 14,575 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -6.3% | 28,109 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -12.3% | 26,316 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -9.2% | 27,253 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.00 | -16.7% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-25 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
51 trades and a 6% win rate on the trend-following backtest, yet it still says HOLD? That system lost 71.8% vs 51.4% for plain buy and hold. The ADX 83 trend signal is strong but the execution is what kills you here.
Torben: same reaction on the win rate. RSI 58 and OBV accumulation are fine but 3 month returns show SOL at 58.9% ahead of SHIB at 45.8%. Why deploy 15% of a 30k portfolio into the weaker chart of the two.
a system that loses 71.8% while buy and hold only drops 51.4% should be a veto on the whole trend engine, not a footnote under the verdict. im sizing off the DCA table only
51 trades is also just noise in either direction. you need a few hundred before calling the trend engine a veto or a hero, the DCA table is the only statistically honest part of this writeup
Funny how the DCA table is the only part that looks sane. 4 buys at -6.3% vs lump sum at -27.1% over the same year. If you must hold SHIB, tranche it and keep the 15% cash buffer like the plan says.
this is the takeaway honestly. 4 buys averaging -6.3% beats lump sum at -27.1% over the same stretch, the entry tranching matters more than the HOLD label
51 trades and a 6% win rate. six. the system somehow lost MORE than buy and hold on a coin that does nothing but pump on stickers lol
@woofcheck_ right? -71.8% on a trend following system is genuinely impressive in the wrong direction. 3 month chart says +45.8% while the strategy bled out
HOLD on SHIB with a 30k portfolio, bold move. stage 2 uptrend call is the only thing keeping me from trimming tbh
15% of a 30k stack into SHIB while the price widget literally prints 0.00. the conviction is coming from inside the house lmao
Been through four of these Marcus Reid style writeups now and the stage framing actually holds up decently. still not apeing 30k into a meme tho
^ same, the price widget showing 0.00 is kinda funny tho. hard to feel conviction off a chart that wont even render a number
the 0.00 widget has shown up on like three of these deep dives now. hard to run a 30k deployment plan off data the chart couldnt even price
ADX at 83 with RSI 58 is a weird combo for a WAIT call, but i get it, price is still below both MAs. holding my bag either way
ADX at 83 mostly means the trend already ran its leg. by the time it prints that high on a meme coin youre often buying someone elses exit, RSI 58 is carrying the argument