Deep Dive Analysis
NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
2026-09-25 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
4.95
4.95
52W HIGH
8.24
8.24
DRAWDOWN
-39.9%
-39.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 70.3), vol 1.44x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 2.47)
Bearish factors: far below high
NEAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.75
Low: 0.86
Now: 4.95
Low: 0.86
Now: 4.95
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 85.1 | ADX (14) | 70.3 |
| 50d MA | 2.35 | 200d MA | 1.87 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.78 | Resistance | 4.88 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.59%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| NEAR | +127.9% | +174.0% | +228.8% | +182.8% |
| BTC | +6.0% | +31.7% | +9.0% | -11.2% |
| ETH | +9.6% | +44.8% | +26.6% | -18.6% |
| SOL | +15.1% | +58.9% | +37.8% | -18.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,723
RETURN
-1.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-59.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| NEAR | -1.8% | +136.0% | -59.9% | 55 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (NEAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +182.8% | 26,705 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +199.7% | 44,958 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +170.5% | 40,569 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +195.5% | 44,326 |
NEAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2.99 (-39.5%) |
| Target 1 | 6.00 (21.2%) |
| Target 2 | 6.00 (21.2%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.58) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 1.57 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 1.54 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 1.51 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 1.62 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 1.60 | -1.4% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 1.70 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.92 | +13.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 2.54 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 1.98 | -22.2% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 1.97 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 3.76 | +91.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-25 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
targets at 16.00 and 26.00 both showing 21.2%? someone fat-fingered the template on this NEAR piece
caught that too lol. R:R of 0.58 says extended entry anyway so the targets barely matter here
lmao both targets showing 21.2% was my favorite part. at least the 2.99 stop gives the tranches a map even if the template math is sloppy
the 21.2% on both targets bug has shown up on a few of these deep dive templates now. stop at 2.99 is the only number on the page i actually trust rn
lmao the 21.2% glitch strikes again. honestly the 2.99 stop is doing all the real work on this deployment plan anyway
same duplicated 21.2% on three of these deep dives now. at some point the stop and tranches are the template and the rest is decoration nobody recalculated
25% position, 25% cash buffer, deploy in 2 tranches. at least the 15k plan is not a straight yolo. HOLD feels right for NEAR
funny detail nobody caught: resistance listed at 4.88 but spot is 4.95. price is already trading through the level the template calls resistance, which is basically the chart saying its extended
spot trading through the level the template still calls resistance at 4.88 is such a classic post run artifact. retest of broken levels from above, 4.88 becomes support long before 16.00 means anything
spot trading through 4.88 while the template still calls it resistance is the chart admitting the data is stale. recalculated levels or nothing, honestly
spot above the listed resistance also means the template data is hours stale. 4.88 is support until it isnt, everything else on the page is decoration
15k deployment plan on a HOLD verdict is paying rent on the idea of a position. the R:R 0.58 line was the only honest part of this writeup
chain abstraction and user growth narratives only carry NEAR if daily actives hold above the Q2 base. without that this 4.95 is just midpoint noise between 1.97 and 8.24
9 bull factors, HOLD verdict, R:R 0.58. the only honest metric in the whole deep dive is that risk reward line
HOLD with 9 bull factors is the right call imo. 50d rising but chasing a 2x at R:R 0.58 is how accounts die. waiting for the retest
9 bull factors vs 1 bear and the verdict is still WAIT lol. tbh fair, R:R 0.58 after that 1.97 to 3.76 run means you’re chasing if you buy here
agreed. trend is real but late. golden cross and both MAs rising is nice, -39.9% off the 8.24 high tho. waiting for a retest closer to 4.20
4.20 retest with a rising 50d is the patient play, but NEAR likes to grind sideways for weeks before giving anyone a clean entry. set the alert, forget the chart
adx 70.3 is basically a vertical move. adding now is just paying top tax
top tax is exactly it. RSI 85 on top of ADX 70, the 127.9% month already paid everyone who wanted in
exactly, ADX that hot almost always mean reverts before continuation. 4.95 after the 1.97 run, id rather miss 10% of the move than buy the exhaustion candle
That +91.4% backtest trade looks great on paper, but the stop at 2.99 gives back a third of the move. Waiting for a tranche entry near the 50d makes more sense to me.
OBV accumulation with a 2.47 volume ratio and ADX 70.3 says the trend is strong, but R:R 0.58 after a 1.97 to 3.76 run says the easy part is over. Sitting on hands at 4.95.
sitting on hands agrees with you but id set the alert at 3.99 instead. 2.99 stop means the first tranche eats a 40% drawdown from here if the 4.20 retest never shows up
3.99 alert squad here too. though knowing NEAR it will wick to 4.03 and send before any of us get filled