Deep Dive Analysis
NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
2026-09-25 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
4.95
4.95
52W HIGH
8.24
8.24
DRAWDOWN
-39.9%
-39.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 70.3), vol 1.44x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 2.47)
Bearish factors: far below high
NEAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.75
Low: 0.86
Now: 4.95
Low: 0.86
Now: 4.95
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 85.1 | ADX (14) | 70.3 |
| 50d MA | 2.35 | 200d MA | 1.87 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.78 | Resistance | 4.88 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.59%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| NEAR | +127.9% | +174.0% | +228.8% | +182.8% |
| BTC | +6.0% | +31.7% | +9.0% | -11.2% |
| ETH | +9.6% | +44.8% | +26.6% | -18.6% |
| SOL | +15.1% | +58.9% | +37.8% | -18.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,723
RETURN
-1.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-59.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| NEAR | -1.8% | +136.0% | -59.9% | 55 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (NEAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +182.8% | 26,705 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +199.7% | 44,958 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +170.5% | 40,569 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +195.5% | 44,326 |
NEAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2.99 (-39.5%) |
| Target 1 | 6.00 (21.2%) |
| Target 2 | 6.00 (21.2%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.58) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 1.57 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 1.54 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 1.51 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 1.62 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 1.60 | -1.4% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 1.70 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.92 | +13.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 2.54 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 1.98 | -22.2% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 1.97 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 3.76 | +91.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-25 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
targets at 16.00 and 26.00 both showing 21.2%? someone fat-fingered the template on this NEAR piece
caught that too lol. R:R of 0.58 says extended entry anyway so the targets barely matter here
the 21.2% on both targets bug has shown up on a few of these deep dive templates now. stop at 2.99 is the only number on the page i actually trust rn
25% position, 25% cash buffer, deploy in 2 tranches. at least the 15k plan is not a straight yolo. HOLD feels right for NEAR
9 bull factors vs 1 bear and the verdict is still WAIT lol. tbh fair, R:R 0.58 after that 1.97 to 3.76 run means you’re chasing if you buy here
agreed. trend is real but late. golden cross and both MAs rising is nice, -39.9% off the 8.24 high tho. waiting for a retest closer to 4.20
adx 70.3 is basically a vertical move. adding now is just paying top tax
That +91.4% backtest trade looks great on paper, but the stop at 2.99 gives back a third of the move. Waiting for a tranche entry near the 50d makes more sense to me.
OBV accumulation with a 2.47 volume ratio and ADX 70.3 says the trend is strong, but R:R 0.58 after a 1.97 to 3.76 run says the easy part is over. Sitting on hands at 4.95.