Deep Dive Analysis
Spiko Amundi Overnight Swap Fund (EUR) (EURSAFO)
2026-10-03 16:00 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.14
1.14
52W HIGH
1.18
1.18
DRAWDOWN
-3.6%
-3.6%
STAGE
Unknown
Unknown
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (18.6), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 43.2)
EURSAFO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.18
Low: 1.14
Now: 1.14
Low: 1.14
Now: 1.14
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 18.6 | ADX (14) | 43.2 |
| 50d MA | 1.17 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.14 | Resistance | 1.18 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.17%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| EURSAFO | -2.8% | -2.0% | -2.2% | — |
| BTC | +9.7% | +35.1% | +9.7% | -2.0% |
| ETH | +6.1% | +45.4% | +27.0% | -4.8% |
| SOL | +17.6% | +66.5% | +40.7% | +0.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,000
RETURN
+0.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| EURSAFO | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0% | 0 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (EURSAFO)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
EURSAFO Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.14 (-0.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-12.4%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-12.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-03 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
running MA crossovers on an overnight swap fund is comedy. RSI 18.6 on a money market instrument means nothing, 1.14 vs 1.18 is just distribution timing
right, the 200d MA prints 0.00 because there is no price history. even the engine looks lost on this one
^ this. 1.14 vs 1.18 is literally how many coupons have accrued, people out here charting the dividend calendar
an overnight swap fund getting graded by a crypto trend engine, RSI 18.6 and all. it’s a euro money market instrument my guy, the 0% backtest is the product working as intended
Exactly. 0.17% daily volatility and the engine still prints SELL with targets 12% below par. These instruments should be filtered out before they ever reach the analysis pipeline.
this is it exactly. a 0% return with 0.17% daily vol IS the pitch for an overnight fund. SELL at 12% below par is the engine telling you its filter needs fixing
agreed, filtering accrual instruments before analysis would fix this overnight. RSI 18.6 on coupon accrual is my favorite malfunction of the week
exactly this. the real red flag is the engine doesnt know what instrument class its looking at. how many other accrual products got a signal this quarter
for real, how does a SELL with targets 12 percent under par pass any sanity check on something that has never left the 1.1x range
imagine paying gas to short a euro fund that yields like a savings account. targets 12% under par on something that has never left the 1.1x range, peak signal
my favorite part is the stop loss on a SELL ticket. who exactly takes the other side of a short on an instrument that prints a fixed coupon
the stop loss line made me snort. engine shorting an instrument whose only job is to accrue a coupon, comedy gold
the counterparty question is the killer. shorting an accrual fund means borrowing units whose only job is to pay a coupon, the desk would just laugh at the ticket
borrow costs on a low float etf will eat any short thesis before the target prints. the engine priced a chart, not the lend market
exactly. the signal here is literally overnight rate minus fees, there is no entry to time. this whole writeup is RSI applied to a savings account
the stop loss on a short of a coupon-paying instrument still kills me. the borrow desk hangs up on that ticket before the math even matters
RSI 18.6 because the nav only moves on distribution dates. someone should teach the engine what an accrual instrument is before printing SELL on par value
right, RSI 18.6 is the engine discovering accrual accounting lol. someone deployed 12k into an overnight fund because a bot saw three red candles
someone needs an accrual instrument whitelist before the engine fires again. third overnight fund this quarter flagged by trend signals that cant exist on a par curve
whitelist by instrument type would fix this overnight. anything classified as a money market fund gets a yield table instead of rsi prints
whitelist by instrument class is the fix. the engine still cant tell an accrual fund from an alt and this is the third one this quarter
third overnight fund this quarter, same bug. a yield table lookup would end this whole category of writeup but apparently teaching the engine instrument class is harder than the charts
third misfire this quarter and the fix is one lookup table. tag instruments by asset class at ingest and overnight funds never reach the signal engine again. this is a data hygiene bug, not a strategy bug
a sell signal on an overnight swap fund that moved 3.6 percent all year is the most crypto thing ill read today. who is even the counterparty here
the 200d MA printing 0.00 should have been the abort signal. no price history means no analysis, just stamp N/A and save everyone the bandwidth
SELL on something that moved 3.6 percent all year and pays an overnight coupon. someone show the engine what a savings account looks like before it shorts one