Deep Dive Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
78774.63
78774.63
52W HIGH
126198.07
126198.07
DRAWDOWN
-37.6%
-37.6%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (59.1), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 45.0)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
BTC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 90603.19
Low: 55567.34
Now: 78774.63
Low: 55567.34
Now: 78774.63
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 59.1 | ADX (14) | 45.0 |
| 50d MA | 70677.52 | 200d MA | 70033.19 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 62487.70 | Resistance | 82262.21 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.85%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| BTC | +0.6% | +22.8% | +0.3% | -13.1% |
| BTC | +0.6% | +22.8% | +0.3% | -13.1% |
| ETH | +3.6% | +45.2% | +12.3% | -16.6% |
| SOL | +10.2% | +32.3% | +23.1% | -22.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
33,277
RETURN
-4.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| BTC | -4.9% | -4.3% | -25.7% | 71 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (BTC)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -13.1% | 23,747 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.5% | 34,132 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -6.0% | 32,915 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -1.1% | 34,628 |
BTC Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 74289.44 (-5.7%) |
| Target 1 | 85502.00 (8.5%) |
| Target 2 | 89988.00 (14.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 77830.29 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 78245.81 | +0.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 77667.57 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 78548.63 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 77403.62 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 77300.48 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 81271.74 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 79671.97 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 79823.87 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 80350.05 | +0.7% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 79115.85 | |
| END | SELL | 78774.63 | -0.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
BTC at 78,774 with 50d at 70,677 and 200d at 70,033. that golden cross is barely alive, one red week and its gone
50d at 70677 and 200d at 70033, that golden cross is barely 600 points wide. one red week and its gone lol
600 points is nothing on btc, one etf flow day is wider than that. but a third rejection at 82,262 would sting
third rejection would sting but both prior ones came on falling volume. this push has bids, different setup imo
600 points wide sure, but the 200d at 70,033 is rising underneath it. both curves pointing up buys you time even if price chops
one red week kills the cross sure, but the 200d at 70,033 is rising to meet it. a shallow dip to 75k and the cross survives anyway
resistance at 82,262 is the line im watching. last two rejections there were brutal
Same, though RSI 59 leaves room to run. If it clears 82k this gets loud fast
it cleared it once earlier this year and got slammed back. needs volume, not just a crossover
both 82k rejections came on decreasing volume tho. this push has actual bids behind it, different animal
Watching 82,262 too but what happens after it clears. Measured move off that range puts 88k in play fast
88k assumes the etf bid comes back. btc funds just bled 400m plus in four sessions, no measured move survives that outflow
january bled six straight outflow sessions and btc cleared its range highs a month later. outflow streaks are terrible timing tools
four sessions of outflows isnt a regime tho, january had six straight and btc still cleared its range highs after. one inflow week changes the whole tape
january also had a fed pivot cooking behind it. this tape has no catalyst, comparing the outflow streaks without that context is lazy
400m out against 400b AUM is noise, not a regime. the measured move reloads on one decent inflow print
or the etf bid was never the engine this time. spot bid thinning on exchange while price holds 78k means someone is absorbing without the wrappers
third test at 82,262 with volume rising each time. classical lore says it breaks, my stop placement says prove it first
third test lore is a sample size of vibes lol. but agreed, no new position until 82,262 actually closes, the cross means nothing before that
deploying 35k when the golden cross is 600 points wide means your entry and your signal can die the same week. stagger the buys instead
staggering works until the cross confirms and youre buying half size at 85k. wide crosses cut both ways
BTC down only 37.6% from the 126k high while almsot everything else did -60% or worse. that alone tells you where the bid lives
exactly, btc bled 37% while alts did 60+. relative strength during a drawdown is the loudest tell there is
78,774 holding above both moving averages with the cross still intact. if 82,262 goes on real volume this moves fast, the range is compressed
78,774 with 82,262 as the ceiling and a golden cross barely 600 points wide. cool setup, rough risk-reward for anyone not already positioned from lower
35k into a 600 point golden cross is aggressive but the 200d rising at 70,033 changes the math. Dips get bought before the signal even has room to die.
35k deployed at 78k on an asset still 37 percent under its 126k high. the system has more conviction than my sleep schedule allows