Bitcoin Bull Cycle Phases Explained: How To Read The Market As BTC Trades Above $110,000

Bitcoin has crossed the $110,000 mark, trading at approximately $110,064 on November 1, 2025, with Ethereum at $3,874 and the total crypto market capitalization above $3.4 trillion. For newcomers and experienced investors alike, understanding where we are in the Bitcoin bull cycle is critical for making informed decisions. Here is a comprehensive guide to Bitcoin market cycles, what the data is telling us right now, and how to position yourself accordingly.

TL;DR

• Bitcoin is trading around $110,064 as of November 1, 2025, following a drop below the $110,000 psychological level in late October
• Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson predicts the cycle peak between $143,000 and $146,000 based on the Max Intersect SMA Model
• The market appears to be in the distribution phase — the final stage before a potential bear market
• The Bitcoin Smart Model price has reached $62,664, with the $68,000 level potentially signaling the exact cycle peak
• Understanding cycle phases helps investors avoid the common trap of buying at the top

What Is a Bitcoin Bull Cycle?

A bull cycle in Bitcoin refers to an extended period of rising prices, typically driven by increasing adoption, institutional inflows, and macroeconomic conditions. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced roughly four-year cycles that correlate with its halving events — the programmed reduction in mining rewards that cuts the rate of new BTC supply in half.

The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 were all followed by significant bull runs within 12 to 18 months. The current cycle has followed a similar pattern, with Bitcoin rallying from under $30,000 in late 2023 to above $110,000 by late 2025.

The Four Phases of a Bitcoin Market Cycle

Market cycles are generally divided into four distinct phases. Recognizing which phase we are in can help investors manage risk and set realistic expectations.

Phase 1: Accumulation

This phase occurs after a bear market bottom. Prices are low, sentiment is deeply negative, and most retail investors have left the market. Smart money and long-term holders quietly accumulate BTC at discounted prices. Trading volume is typically low, and price movements are subdued. The accumulation phase often lasts several months and is characterized by a slow grind upward that goes largely unnoticed by mainstream media.

Phase 2: Markup (Bull Run)

The markup phase is what most people think of as a bull market. Prices rise steadily, then accelerate as FOMO (fear of missing out) drives new participants into the market. Media coverage intensifies, social media buzz peaks, and retail investors begin pouring in. This phase typically sees the largest percentage gains and can last anywhere from 6 to 18 months. Bitcoin’s rally from approximately $25,000 in late 2023 through $110,000 in 2025 represents this markup phase.

Phase 3: Distribution

Distribution is the most deceptive phase. Prices may still reach new highs, but the character of the market changes. Early buyers and institutions begin taking profits, selling into the strength created by late-arriving retail buyers. Price action becomes choppy and sideways. Sentiment remains broadly positive, but underneath the surface, smart money is exiting. Analysts like Joao Wedson believe Bitcoin is currently in this distribution phase, with the Smart Model price approaching key levels that have historically marked cycle peaks.

“Now, many are afraid to sell, confident we’ll shoot straight to $250K — which, historically, is the classic signature of a distribution phase,” Wedson noted in his analysis.

Phase 4: Markdown (Bear Market)

The markdown phase is the painful counterpart to the markup. Prices decline steadily, often dropping 70-80% from their peak. Many late entrants sell at a loss, and the cycle of despair eventually leads back to the accumulation phase. This is where understanding cycles becomes most valuable — recognizing the transition from distribution to markdown can help investors protect gains.

What The Data Shows Right Now

Several indicators suggest Bitcoin is in the late stages of its current bull cycle:

• Price action: Bitcoin dropped below the psychological $110,000 level in late October despite a Federal Reserve rate cut on October 29. The muted reaction to what should have been a bullish catalyst suggests exhaustion in buying pressure.
• Max Intersect SMA Model: This model, tracked by Alphractal, has accurately identified cycle peaks in previous cycles. It currently projects a peak between $143,000 and $146,000.
• Smart Model Price: This metric has jumped from approximately $60,000 to $62,664. Historically, when it approaches the $68,000 region, it has coincided with the exact day of a new all-time high.
• Sentiment divergence: Despite sideways price action and weekly losses exceeding 1%, many market participants remain convinced of much higher prices — a hallmark of distribution.

How To Position Yourself

Understanding cycle phases is not about perfectly timing the market — it is about managing risk proportionally to where we are in the cycle.

For long-term holders: If you accumulated early, consider taking partial profits. Scaling out gradually during distribution is historically more effective than trying to sell at the exact top. Set clear price targets and stick to them.

For new entrants: Be cautious about going all-in at current levels. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) remains the most prudent approach, especially in the late stages of a bull cycle. If the market does correct, you will have capital available to accumulate at lower prices.

For traders: Watch the Smart Model price and the Max Intersect SMA Model for confirmation signals. The $143,000-$146,000 range is the projected peak zone. Tighten stop-losses as we approach these levels.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin market cycles have repeated with remarkable consistency since the asset’s inception. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the structural dynamics of halving events, supply reduction, and human psychology create patterns that investors ignore at their peril. With BTC above $110,000, we are in territory that few predicted even a year ago. The difference between those who preserve wealth through the next cycle and those who do not will come down to preparation and discipline — not luck.

The tools and frameworks exist to make informed decisions. Use them. Do not let euphoria override your risk management. The distribution phase rewards patience and punishes greed.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.