Bitcoin and Ethereum have held near their recent highs as renewed talks between the United States and Iran brought another proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz into focus, with lower oil prices potentially easing one of the pressures that has kept Treasury yields elevated and risk assets under strain.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday that Tehran had proposed a seven-day plan to Washington under which hostilities would stop before the Strait of Hormuz reopened and comprehensive negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program began. The proposal, delivered through intermediaries, calls for an end to hostilities including in Lebanon, the release of at least 12 billion USD in frozen Iranian assets, sanctions waivers for Iranian oil and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. Iran would reopen the strait at the end of the seventh day if those conditions were met.
Araghchi said Tehran was ready to start implementing the plan as soon as Washington agreed. An American official familiar with the discussions described the talks through mediators as positive and constructive, but said Washington would not rush into an agreement.
Markets have priced hope before
Traders have heard this pitch before, and the track record argues for caution. WTI crude fell more than 2.5 percent to around 89 USD a barrel on September 22 after Iran signaled Hormuz could reopen within a week, while Brent dropped below 98 USD. Bitcoin was trading close to 86,000 USD at the time and has since settled near 84,000 USD after reaching 87,392 USD earlier in the week. Ethereum has held around the 2,600 USD area following its rejection near 2,800 USD.
Washington and Tehran reached a 14-point memorandum of understanding in June that declared an end to the war and provided for commercial vessels to resume using the waterway, with Iran expected to facilitate safe passage without charges for 60 days. The arrangement broke down within weeks: Tehran interpreted it as recognizing its authority to manage traffic, while Washington and Gulf states insisted on unrestricted passage. By July, Iran had fired on vessels it said were using an unauthorized route and declared the strait closed again, and Washington revoked a license allowing Iranian oil sales.
Further attempts followed through the summer, with Iran in August tying a full reopening to an end to the war, removal of sanctions, compensation and the lifting of what it described as a U.S. blockade. Ceasefire arrangements announced in April and June both failed to hold. The latest proposal compresses the timetable: the June memorandum allowed 60 days to negotiate a final agreement, while Araghchi’s plan would reopen Hormuz after seven days and move directly into comprehensive nuclear talks.
The macro wall in front of the rally
Any agreement would arrive while crypto traders face a difficult U.S. macro backdrop. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on September 16 to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, saying inflation remained elevated even as economic activity expanded at a solid pace. Bond yields have climbed since: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.11 percent on September 24, up from 4.96 percent a day earlier, while the 30-year moved to 5.40 percent and the 10-year real yield climbed to 2.76 percent.
Oil has been part of that pressure. Brent moved above 100 USD earlier in September as fighting around Iran raised concerns over energy supplies, keeping the prospect of another Fed hike on the table.
Bitcoin has absorbed much of the pressure so far. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly 2.65 billion USD in net inflows over five sessions through September 23, including nearly 999 million USD on September 21, 714.7 million USD the next day and 346.98 million USD on September 23. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC accumulated 113,950 BTC from July 15 through September 23, and more than 13,800 BTC left Binance in a single day, the largest daily net outflow from the exchange since 2023.
Ethereum has followed a similar recovery, though its rally stalled below 2,800 USD. ETH traded near 2,675 USD on September 23 after reaching roughly 2,789 USD, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs received 162.2 million USD on September 22 and another 105 million USD the following session. The token held above its 50, 100 and 200 period four-hour moving averages during the pullback even after losing the shorter 20 period average.
What a reopening would change
The transmission channel from Hormuz to crypto runs through oil, inflation expectations and Treasury yields. Before the war began in February, roughly one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the strait, and shipping has remained heavily disrupted since. Restoring regular traffic would remove some of the supply uncertainty that has supported crude prices, easing pressure on the inflation measures the Fed is watching.
Technically, Bitcoin faces resistance around 86,700 to 87,400 USD, the zone that capped the two most recent rallies. Ethereum would need to reclaim 2,700 USD before another attempt at the recent 2,789 USD high. Until either a durable Hormuz agreement or a dovish Fed shift arrives, the range-bound pattern near recent highs, supported by ETF demand and accumulation but capped by 5-percent-plus yields, remains the base case.
Market snapshot at publication (12:00 UTC, Sept. 25, 2026, CoinGecko via BitcoinsNews price cache): BTC 84,606 USD, ETH 2,716.64 USD, SOL 120.81 USD.
iran wants 12 billion in frozen assets released AND sanctions waivers just to reopen hormuz for 7 days. thats not a plan thats a wishlist
12 billion unlocked plus waivers AND the naval blockade lifted, for a seven day reopening. someone in washington is framing that wishlist
unlock assets, waive sanctions, lift a blockade, then maybe reopen. that seventh day clause is doing heroic work in one sentence
iran wants 12 billion in frozen assets unlocked plus sanctions waivers before reopening hormuz on day seven. that deal dies in one meeting and oil pops again
5.11 percent on treasuries while BTC sits near 86k is honestly the more impressive part of this story. Risk appetite is holding despite the yield pressure.
5.11 percent on treasuries is still doing the heavy lifting here. btc holding near highs with yields that rich is the actual headline
^ this. everyone staring at araghchi pressers while ignoring the coupon math
already pumped once on the sept 22 hormuz headline then faded. trading this rumor twice is how you get rekt
exactly, second rug on the same headline is textbook. wait for ships to actually move through the strait before adding risk
btc grinding near highs with the 10yr at 5.11 percent is the quiet bull signal in this piece. any friendly inflation print and this rips
the problem is a friendly print needs hormuz calm first. an oil spike and soft cpi in the same week is off the table
araghchi announcing conditions through intermediaries is the oldest tell. when the foreign minister does the talking the navy is still sailing