Bitcoin’s rebound to the mid-84,000 USD area has revived a familiar question: are long-term holders using the strength to unload? The latest CryptoQuant readings say yes, but at a pace that looks closer to moderate profit-taking than the aggressive distribution that has historically topped cycles.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost said in his September 25 analysis that long-term BTC holders are currently realizing profits of roughly 72 percent. The comparison that matters is the near-350 percent profit level recorded in December 2024, when long-term-holder gains were much closer to previous cycle extremes. At 72 percent, current realized profits sit well below that peak, and Darkfost described the phase as moderate, noting that similar readings have appeared during earlier bear-market periods when long-term holders were less motivated to unload large positions immediately.
The figure does not mean long-term holders have sold 72 percent of their BTC. It measures the profit performance associated with coins being spent by that cohort, which CryptoQuant defines through holding-age metrics. Darkfost’s interpretation is that holders could continue waiting for higher profit levels before heavier selling emerges, an analyst assessment based on historical behavior rather than a forecast.
The distinction matters after BTC rallied from roughly 75,000 USD to above 87,000 USD within days before settling back. Bitcoin has faced two rejections around the 87,000 USD region while ETF demand and large-holder accumulation continued below the surface.
Coins are leaving exchanges, but one day did the heavy lifting
Exchange flows give another constructive reading, though the weekly pattern is less uniform than a headline net-outflow suggests. CryptoQuant analyst CoinNiel reported that exchanges recorded 12,153 BTC in net outflows between September 17 and September 23, after the previous week produced 6,142 BTC in net inflows.
CoinNiel cautioned that September 22 alone accounted for approximately 19,105 BTC in withdrawals, meaning net outflows did not dominate every session during the seven-day period. Total exchange reserves fell from roughly 2.726 million BTC on September 21 to a provisional 2.698 million BTC on September 24, a decline of about 1.03 percent.
His analysis does not treat every withdrawal as a purchase. Coins can leave exchanges for private custody, transfers between institutions, collateral management or other purposes, so reserve declines alone cannot establish fresh spot demand.
A separate Binance reading adds detail. Darkfost tracked more than 13,800 BTC leaving Binance in one day, the largest daily net outflow since 2023, with Binance reserves falling from around 705,000 BTC to 685,000 BTC over four days. The Binance figure and the all-exchange dataset measure different scopes and should not be combined into one total.
Leverage is cooling
Derivatives data show leverage unwinding after the move above 87,000 USD. Bitcoin open interest fell from approximately 29.34 billion USD on September 21 to a provisional 26.29 billion USD on September 24, a 10.4 percent decline as BTC pulled back from its recent high.
Because open interest is measured in dollar terms, part of the decline comes from price changes rather than traders closing positions. Funding rates cooled as well: average funding rose from near 0.00662 percent to 0.00777 percent between September 17 and 23, then dropped to a provisional 0.00570 percent on September 24, reducing the cost of maintaining leveraged longs.
CoinNiel described the combination of easing funding, lower open interest and exchange withdrawals as encouraging, but stopped short of treating it as proof of a renewed uptrend. The change follows a period when leverage expanded quickly during the rally, with futures traders adding more than 2 billion USD in positions as BTC moved through 85,000 USD.
The missing confirmation
Spot demand remains the unresolved part of the assessment. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received another 191 million USD on September 24, extending their net inflow streak to six consecutive sessions, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking roughly 163 million USD and Fidelity’s FBTC about 12.86 million USD.
The six-day sequence followed much larger inflows earlier in the week: approximately 999 million USD on September 21, 714.7 million USD on September 22 and 346.98 million USD on September 23 before daily inflows moderated. ETF subscriptions have stayed positive even as BTC failed to hold above 87,000 USD, but CoinNiel still calls the recovery unconfirmed because ETF flows represent only one part of total spot-market activity.
The setup, then, is a market taking profits without panic: long-term holders realizing moderate gains, coins leaving exchanges, leverage compressing and steady ETF demand underneath. Historically that combination has supported continuation more often than it has preceded capitulation, but stronger evidence of persistent spot buying is still needed before the recovery can be called confirmed.
Market snapshot at publication (12:00 UTC, Sept. 25, 2026, CoinGecko via BitcoinsNews price cache): BTC 84,606 USD, ETH 2,716.64 USD, SOL 120.81 USD.
72% realized vs near 350% in dec 2024. yeah this is profit taking, not distribution. completely different regime
72 percent realized vs nearly 350 in dec 2024. thats a nap, not a distribution top. the doom posts write themselves anyway
one caveat tho, 72 percent on coins bought near the 2022 lows is still a lot of absolute profit per coin. percentage alone flatters it
fair, 72 percent on coins stacked near the lows is real money per coin. but supply in profit always grows in a recovery, the gap to dec 2024 is the cleaner signal
Two rejections at 87k and everyone declares the top. The CryptoQuant read actually says holders are waiting for better prices before heavy selling. That is constructive, not bearish.
Agree on the read, but two rejections at 87k with leverage still unwinding means the next push needs fresh fuel. Holders not selling is necessary, it is not sufficient.
Darkfost framing it as moderate matches what the holding age metrics usually show in bear phases. mid 84k range with contained selling is healthier than the headline suggests
important bit: 72% doesnt mean they sold 72% of coins. its the profit on coins being spent. title bait almost got me
every cycle people relearn this metric. spent profit percentage, not percent of supply sold. cryptoquant should rename it something boring
lmao true, one chart label and half the replies think 72 percent of supply got dumped. spent profit ratio vs realized supply, two different worlds
mid 84k with contained holder selling and 5 percent yields says this market is on rate watch, not holder watch
everyone arguing about the 72 percent number and skipping the 20k btc leaving binance in a day, biggest daily outflow since 2023. reserves 705k to 685k in four days, thats the part id watch