The Broad View
Bitcoin has surged to a weekly high above $745 as the United States heads into one of the most consequential presidential elections in modern history. The digital currency, which began the week trading at approximately $710, experienced a sharp rally as election night unfolded and it became increasingly apparent that Donald Trump would secure a surprise victory over Hillary Clinton. The price action represents a fascinating case study in how bitcoin behaves during periods of acute geopolitical uncertainty, with the cryptocurrency moving inversely to traditional equity futures markets that initially plummeted on the news.
As of November 7, 2016, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at approximately $13 billion, with bitcoin commanding a dominant market share. Ethereum, the second-largest digital asset, trades at $10.85 with a market cap of roughly $932 million. The broader blockchain asset market has experienced mixed performance, with Monero leading gainers at nearly 32% on the week while Steem has declined over 23%.
Key Support/Resistance
Bitcoin’s price action over the past week reveals a clearly defined trading range with significant volatility. The cryptocurrency opened the week near $710 before surging to $745 at the peak of election-night uncertainty. Key support has established itself at the $690 level, where buyers have consistently stepped in to prevent further declines. The $700 round number has served as a psychological anchor throughout the week, with price repeatedly returning to this level during periods of consolidation.
On the upside, the $740-745 zone represents the immediate resistance ceiling. This level was tested during the election-night spike but was not sustained, with price quickly retreating back below $710. The $750 mark remains a significant psychological barrier that has not been breached since the summer highs near $775 in June 2016.
For Ethereum, the picture is less constructive. ETH has fallen steadily throughout the week from $10.85 toward $10.20, representing a weekly decline of approximately 5.75%. Against bitcoin, ethereum has lost 4.68% over the same period, indicating that the altcoin is underperforming the market leader during this risk-off episode. Key support for ETH sits at $10.00, a psychologically important level that has held through multiple tests in recent weeks.
Institutional Flows
The election-night price action reveals a notable shift in institutional perception of bitcoin. Chris Burniske of ARK Invest appeared on Bloomberg to discuss bitcoin’s potential as a “safe haven” or “uncorrelated” asset, characterizing it as “gold 2.0” or “gold that can teleport.” This framing — positioning bitcoin as a digital alternative to gold during periods of political and economic uncertainty — represents a significant evolution in the institutional narrative around the asset class.
Deutsche Bank’s Global Transaction Banking department has added fuel to the institutional interest fire with a major report titled “Powering the flow of global capital — capital markets investor insights.” The report identifies blockchain as one of three major trends reshaping finance, noting that “investors are optimistic about blockchain and the pace of its implementation but not everyone agrees on what it will look like when done.” This kind of language from a Tier 1 global bank signals that institutional capital is beginning to seriously evaluate blockchain and digital assets as a legitimate asset class.
The CME Group’s launch of two bitcoin reference rate products — developed with Crypto Facilities and drawing data from exchanges including Bitfinex, Bitstamp, GDAX, itBit, Kraken, and OKCoin — further underscores the institutional infrastructure being built around bitcoin. These reference rates are explicitly designed to support the creation of new financial products like bitcoin derivatives and ETFs, which would open the floodgates for institutional capital allocation.
Meanwhile, Blockchain.info, one of the largest bitcoin wallet providers, is reportedly beta testing an in-app purchase feature through a partnership with Coinify. With Blockchain.info’s $30 million in funding and massive user base, this feature could significantly lower the barrier to entry for retail investors looking to gain bitcoin exposure.
Sentiment Indicators
Market sentiment is a complex tapestry of competing narratives heading into the election aftermath. On one hand, the safe-haven narrative is gaining traction, with bitcoin’s inverse correlation to equity futures during the election-night shock providing empirical support. On the other hand, the broader crypto market is showing signs of fatigue, with ethereum declining steadily and several major altcoins posting negative weekly returns.
The Golem project has captured significant attention in the Ethereum ecosystem, conducting its highly anticipated GNT token crowdsale on November 11. Dubbed the “Airbnb for computers,” Golem aims to create a decentralized marketplace for computing power on the Ethereum blockchain. The ICO has dominated Ethereum community discussion and could be contributing to ETH selling pressure as participants liquidate positions to participate in the crowdsale.
Year-to-date performance metrics paint a broadly positive picture: bitcoin is up 62.30% against the dollar, while ethereum has gained an extraordinary 975% since January 1. Against its January low, bitcoin has appreciated 96.54%, though it remains 8.22% below its June high. These returns significantly outpace traditional asset classes, with the S&P 500 managing only modest gains over the same period.
The Bull/Bear Case
The Bull Case: Bitcoin’s performance during the election uncertainty validates its emerging role as a safe-haven asset and uncorrelated store of value. With institutional infrastructure rapidly maturing — CME reference rates, Deutsche Bank endorsement, regulated ETF proposals — the path to mainstream institutional adoption is becoming clearer. The post-election environment, regardless of political leanings, is likely to feature continued policy uncertainty, potential for inflationary fiscal policy, and questions about the stability of traditional financial markets. All of these factors favor bitcoin as an alternative store of value. The 62% year-to-date gain with strong support at $690 suggests a market that is trending higher with healthy consolidation.
The Bear Case: The failure to hold the $745 spike level reveals underlying selling pressure that cannot be ignored. Bitcoin has declined 8.22% from its June highs, and the repeated rejections at the $740-750 zone suggest that sellers remain active at elevated levels. Ethereum’s persistent weakness is a warning sign for the broader crypto market, as ETH has historically served as a leading indicator for altcoin sentiment. The Monero rally of 32% — while impressive — may represent speculative froth rather than sustainable demand. Regulatory uncertainty under a new administration adds another layer of risk, as the Trump presidency’s stance on digital currencies remains entirely unknown. A break below $690 support could trigger a rapid decline toward the $650 level.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
eth at 10 bucks with a 932M market cap. the entire crypto space was worth less than a single mid cap stock today. we were trading in a sandbox and didnt even know it
eth at 10.85 with under 1B mcap. you could have bought a car for what is now a house. every btc chart from before 2017 is just pain porn for late buyers
btc pumping while s&p futures tanked on trump winning. the uncorrelated asset thesis started forming that night
btc up, s&p futures down, monero mooning. election night 2016 was the first time crypto traded like a genuine hedge against systemic chaos
macro_squid btc at 745 felt like a fantasy then. now a 5% move is 5000 dollars. wild how the numbers reshape perspective
Monero spiking 32% while Steem crashed 23%. even in 2016 the market was already separating signal from noise
$710 to $745 in a week on pure geopolitical chaos. monero up 32% too. money was fleeing to anything outside the traditional system
ETH at $10.85 with a $932M market cap. the total crypto market was $13 billion. those numbers feel like another planet now
Dmitri Volkov ETH market cap was under 1B. now its half a trillion. anyone who held from 10 dollars is in a different tax bracket entirely
13 billion total market cap sounds wild now. btc alone is over a trillion. we really were at the ground floor
Mara J btc at 745 on election night feels like a parallel universe. 5% move now is bigger than the entire 2016 market cap
i remember checking block explorer at 3am watching the price move. one of those nights where you realize btc is something different
ngl i did the same thing. refreshed block explorer like it was election night coverage. which i guess it technically was
13 billion total market cap. a single mid-cap stock is bigger than the entire crypto market was in 2016. we were literally trading in a puddle
Monero up 32 percent that week was the real signal. privacy coins always spike when political uncertainty hits. same pattern in every election since
archival_node monero spiking 32 percent on election night is the cleanest political-uncertainty trade Ive ever seen. privacy coins are the canary in the coal mine for geopolitical stress
nodemap_ monero up 32 percent on election night was the market pricing in surveillance state expansion. privacy coins read the political tea leaves better than any pundit
monero up 32% while the whole system was reeling. every election cycle since, privacy coins spike the same way. pattern is undeniable at this point
steem down 23% the same week btc pumped on election chaos. even back then the market was brutal to anything without a real thesis
steem down 23 percent while btc pumped. even in 2016 the market was already punishing tokens with no thesis. nothing changes
13B total crypto market cap and btc at 745. one alt season later those numbers became unrecognizable. the ground floor was literally the floor
Bence M. 13B total market cap and people were still calling it a bubble. try explaining that to someone who bought ETH at 10 bucks
btc at 745 during trump election night felt like a big deal. now it moves 745 dollars in 5 minutes on a random tuesday
Steem down 23% that same week and nobody batted an eye. even back then the market was already filtering out projects with no real thesis