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IBIT had 872M in outflows on Wednesday alone. thats not retail taking profits thats desks deleveraging ahead of the Fed decision. big difference
IBIT having its biggest redemption day right before a Fed decision is institutions de-risking plain and simple. This is not a BTC bearish signal, it is a macro risk-off move. ETF flows follow the bond market not crypto fundamentals
Fed dot plot matters more than the redemption flow honestly. if they signal two cuts IBIT bounces 5% in a session. if they hold hawkish the outflows continue
dario you are ignoring that IBIT redemptions happened while BTC spot was flat. basis trade unwinds not directional bets. the CME discount flipped to -0.3%
imagine being long IBIT into a fed decision with a -0.3% basis discount. that is some premium steak copium
872M out on a flat spot price is textbook basis trade unwind. dario called it right, desks are pulling risk before the fed not panic selling BTC
BlackRock wouldnt panic over one redemption day. they hold 65B in AUM for IBIT. 872M is 1.3%. slow news day
Yumi is right that 872M is barely a rounding error for a 65B fund. the headline sounds scary until you do the percentage math