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Google Willow hitting 105 qubits with sub-threshold error correction changes the timeline. Shor algorithm needs ~2400 logical qubits for secp256k1. were maybe 8 years out not 20
lattice the estimate keeps dropping. IBM went from needing millions of qubits to 100K in 3 years. another Willow-type jump and were at 10K by 2030
Willow did 105 qubits with error correction and people still say quantum is decades away. the curve is bending hard. BIP-360 gathering dust is negligence at this point
Coinbase prepping PQC wallets before Bitcoin itself does is peak private sector. the BIP process for post quantum signatures has been stuck since 2022
kwame the BIP-360 proposal for lattice signatures has been sitting without review since March. Blockstream promised a reference implementation 18 months ago. radio silence
Coinbase rolling out PQC addresses before Bitcoin core even reviews BIP-360 tells you everything about incentives. private sector moves when money is on the line
breaking secp256k1 is step one. you also need to break RIPEMD-160 and SHA-256 for full Bitcoin compromise. even with PQC addresses old UTXOs using legacy hashes are still vulnerable
Quantum breaking Bitcoin is always 10 years away until it is not. Coinbase preparing post-quantum addresses now is the right call. The real risk is not SHA-256 being broken overnight but a gradual advance that makes long-dated vulnerabilities exploitable. Plan early