This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Cardano (ADA)
USD 0.1702
USD 1.32
-87.1%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (29.4), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 34.9), vol 1.35x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.84)
Low: USD 0.1387
Now: USD 0.1702
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 29.4 | ADX (14) | 34.9 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.2184 | 200d MA | USD 0.2050 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.1672 | Resistance | USD 0.2328 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.9%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ADA | -19.1% | -17.5% | -10.1% | -33.2% |
| BTC | -15.0% | -10.7% | +8.4% | +2.4% |
| ETH | -18.7% | -22.9% | +8.7% | -1.6% |
| SOL | -22.5% | -22.2% | -2.1% | -4.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 35,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ADA | +3.0% | -75.2% | -20.6% | 47 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ADA)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 35,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -33.2% | USD 11,950 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -35.9% | USD 22,421 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -34.7% | USD 22,844 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -31.1% | USD 24,117 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify ADA. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.1672 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.2328 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.1501 (-11.8% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.0100 (5.9%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | USD 0.2448 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | USD 0.2541 | +3.8% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 0.2383 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | USD 0.2480 | +4.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | USD 0.2585 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | USD 0.2543 | -1.6% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | USD 0.2555 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | USD 0.2471 | -3.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 0.2443 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 0.2466 | +0.9% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 0.2463 | |
| 2026-10-16 | SELL | USD 0.2255 | -8.4% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
87% down from 1.32 and the model still reads stage 4 downtrend. ada maxis been calling a bottom the entire way down this chart
thats kinda the point tho, the 50d/200d crossover model wouldve kept you flat through the whole bleed. sometimes the best trade is no position
0.17 with RSI in the low 30s. one more flush lower and I am actually bidding. not before that