This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Stellar (XLM)
USD 0.1455
USD 0.6342
-77.1%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (32.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 38.1), vol 1.43x on down day
Low: USD 0.1211
Now: USD 0.1455
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 32.0 | ADX (14) | 38.1 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.1829 | 200d MA | USD 0.1822 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.1414 | Resistance | USD 0.1868 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.38%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| XLM | -16.0% | -18.4% | -28.2% | -3.2% |
| BTC | -15.0% | -10.7% | +8.4% | +2.4% |
| ETH | -18.7% | -22.9% | +8.7% | -1.6% |
| SOL | -22.5% | -22.2% | -2.1% | -4.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 30,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| XLM | -33.2% | -45.6% | -45.7% | 39 | 38% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (XLM)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 30,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -3.2% | USD 16,828 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -17.3% | USD 24,805 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -23.8% | USD 22,872 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -21.0% | USD 23,709 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify XLM. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.1414 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.1868 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.1298 (-10.8% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.007832 (5.38%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | USD 0.1801 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | USD 0.1771 | -1.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | USD 0.1912 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | USD 0.1761 | -7.9% |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | USD 0.1836 | |
| 2026-09-17 | SELL | USD 0.1835 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | USD 0.1931 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | USD 0.1962 | +1.6% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | USD 0.1973 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | USD 0.1920 | -2.7% |
| 2026-10-11 | BUY | USD 0.2029 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | USD 0.1906 | -6.1% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
77% off the 0.6342 high, RSI at 32, and the monitor still says stage 4 downtrend. learned the hard way not to catch this knife, waiting to see if 0.1414 support actually holds
0.1414 is barely 3% below spot lol. one decent sized red candle and that support is gone
The backtest log says it all. Buy at 0.2463 on Oct 1, sell at 0.2255 on Oct 16 for a quick 8.4% loss. At least the model goes flat on a death cross instead of riding down to 0.14.