Deep Dive Analysis
Algorand (ALGO)
2026-09-22 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.11
0.11
52W HIGH
0.60
0.60
DRAWDOWN
-81.7%
-81.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (67.2), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 25.7), vol 1.99x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 2.01)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
ALGO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.14
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.11
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.11
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 67.2 | ADX (14) | 25.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.09 | 200d MA | 0.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.08 | Resistance | 0.12 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.87%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ALGO | +25.1% | +30.6% | -7.0% | -19.2% |
| BTC | +10.9% | +29.0% | +5.9% | -11.5% |
| ETH | +13.2% | +41.9% | +20.0% | -18.4% |
| SOL | +16.8% | +49.5% | +26.7% | -20.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,574
RETURN
-2.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-36.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ALGO | -2.8% | -37.5% | -36.5% | 69 | 45% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ALGO)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -19.2% | 7,841 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -1.8% | 14,727 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -2.5% | 14,632 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +2.2% | 15,323 |
ALGO Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.09 (-14.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.18) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.09 | -0.6% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | 0.10 | +1.6% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 0.09 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 0.10 | +8.2% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.11 | +3.6% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.11 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 0.11 | -1.9% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-22 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
2yr backtest prints -2.8% with a 45% win rate over 69 trades and the engine still calls it BUY with high conviction lol. love the honesty at least
a 45% win rate on 69 trades and they still print it in the article instead of burying it. respect for the transparency, ngl
69 trades is a tiny sample either way, half these backtests are noise with a dashboard skin
right? 69 trades, negative expectancy, and the conviction meter still reads high. algo has been a slow bleed for two years, signal or no signal
the conviction meter barely moved from their SOL writeup either. its a template variable at this point
tbf the ALGO dashboard has the 0.00 TP bug AND a minus 100 target. at least the SOL one rendered, quality control is the actual signal here
The drawdown column matters more than the signal. -81.7% from the 0.60 high while sitting at 0.11, I would want the 0.08 support to hold before any tranche goes in
fair point on the signal, but look at the DCA table. 12 buys returned +2.2% while lump sum lost 19.2%. the entry method is doing all the work here
lump sum losing 19.2% while the DCA ladder grinds out +2.2 basically settles it. the tranche structure is doing all the work, the signal is decoration
the tranche structure saving the whole backtest is the quiet headline here. strip out the entry method and the signal itself adds almost nothing
both profit targets are 0.00 (-100%). think the template bugged out on the targets, editor should fix that
both TP fields reading 0.00 is wild, kinda hard to plan tranches around a minus 100 percent target lol
the minus 100 percent targets are still sitting there hours later lol. kinda hard to plan a 15k tranche ladder around numbers the template ate
spotted the 0.00 targets too. hard to take the tranche plan seriously when the template ate the exit levels, someone should fix that
15k on something down 81% from 0.60. bold. ill watch whether 0.11 reclaims before touching a ladder this wide
9 bull factors but the death cross is right there in the bear column lol. still, 0.11 with 50d and 200d both rising under it, that’s a decent base
-81.7% drawdown from the 0.60 high and they’re calling Stage 2 uptrend. I mean technically yes but that framing does a lot of heavy lifting
been stuck between 0.08 support and 0.12 resistance forever. if it clears 0.12 with that 1.99x volume this actually gets interesting
0.08 is the whole trade honestly. lose that and every tranche below it is just averaging into a falling knife
been staring at that same range for months. three tests of 0.08 this year and each one bought less than the last. one of these attempts 0.12 finally gives
stage 2 framing after an 81 percent drawdown is doing serious heavy lifting lol. base building maybe, uptrend is generous
0.08 support has now held multiple tests this year. a clean break of 0.12 on real volume and this base finally resolves
45% win rate, negative expectancy, TP fields printing 0.00, and a 15k deployment plan under it all. commitment ceremony at this point
still zeroed out lol. a 15k ladder with negative expectancy and no exit numbers, this is content not analysis
0.08 has held three times this year but nobody mentions each test came on lower volume. the 0.12 break needs a real volume print behind it