Deep Dive Analysis
Algorand (ALGO)
2026-11-01 11:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.10
0.10
52W HIGH
0.60
0.60
DRAWDOWN
-84.2%
-84.2%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, MACD-, RSI weak (34.0), far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.68)
ALGO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.08
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.10
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.10
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 34.0 | ADX (14) | 23.2 |
| 50d MA | 0.11 | 200d MA | 0.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.09 | Resistance | 0.14 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.6%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ALGO | -24.4% | +12.6% | +1.0% | +13.6% |
| BTC | -6.9% | +0.3% | +24.3% | +20.5% |
| ETH | -10.6% | -6.3% | +36.1% | +22.1% |
| SOL | -14.4% | -6.6% | +36.7% | +22.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
30,427
RETURN
-13.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-35.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ALGO | -13.1% | -57.5% | -35.8% | 63 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ALGO)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +13.6% | 18,661 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -14.2% | 30,016 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -7.9% | 32,219 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -10.7% | 31,250 |
ALGO Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-13.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.11 | +8.6% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.12 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.14 | +13.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.13 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.12 | -1.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 0.13 | +4.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 0.13 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | 0.11 | -18.9% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-11-01 11:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
a golden cross that still prints -13 percent on the backtest tells you the signal regime is broken for this asset. algo rallies have been liquidity events, not trend legs, and the system correctly refuses to pay for that
63 trades at 49 percent win rate is basically coin flipping with commission drag. the interesting number is max drawdown -35.8 vs buy and hold -57.5, that is the entire thesis for trend following on algo right there
49 pct win rate with a -35.8 max dd while buy and hold eats -57.5? yeah ill take the coin flip with commission drag. avoiding the full drawdown IS the edge on algo, always has been
84 percent off the high and still rated topping, not bottoming. that is the honest read, catching the falling knife here has no trend confirmation behind it, support at 0.09 is one flush away from 0.08 which was already the low
Support at 0.09 sitting right above the 0.08 low from a year ago. One wick takes out both and everyone will call the SELL obvious in hindsight. These levels are paper thin.
Tomas is right that 0.09 looks thin, but that is exactly why the SELL plan is staggered instead of one entry. If the 0.08 low from last year breaks there is no confirmed floor below, and eating the full -57.5 pct buy and hold drawdown to find out is a bad trade.