Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-11-01 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.26
0.26
52W HIGH
0.41
0.41
DRAWDOWN
-36.6%
-36.6%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (38.3), far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.53)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.17
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.26
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.26
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 38.3 | ADX (14) | 18.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.30 | 200d MA | 0.23 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.25 | Resistance | 0.37 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.97%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | -28.5% | +26.9% | +27.4% | +55.8% |
| BTC | -6.9% | +0.3% | +24.3% | +20.5% |
| ETH | -10.6% | -6.3% | +36.1% | +22.1% |
| SOL | -14.4% | -6.6% | +36.7% | +22.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,988
RETURN
-0.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-29.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -0.1% | +22.6% | -29.4% | 7 | 29% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +55.8% | 18,390 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +19.2% | 17,877 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +21.3% | 18,199 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +20.5% | 18,079 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.24 (-7.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-27 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-05-28 | SELL | 0.19 | -4.3% |
| 2026-06-02 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-06-03 | SELL | 0.19 | -4.2% |
| 2026-06-04 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-06-05 | SELL | 0.18 | -9.1% |
| 2026-06-19 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-06-20 | SELL | 0.19 | -2.2% |
| 2026-06-21 | BUY | 0.21 | |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 0.20 | -6.5% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 0.22 | |
| 2026-10-25 | SELL | 0.29 | +30.9% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-11-01 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
JUP at 0.26 against the 0.41 high and this reads brave. 5 bear factors vs 3 bull is a pretty lopsided scoreboard
brave sure, though -36% drawdown is mild next to what JUP did over the summer. could be way worse
-36% drawdown and no real capitulation wick is exactly why im not adding. learned in 2024 that mild drawdowns get mild bounces
lopsided scoreboard sure, but half those bear factors are macro and apply to everything. JUP itself keeps executing, the token just lags
tomas novak said wait in 4 different ways lol. stage 1 bottoming + low conviction = no entry yet, and my whole tl is calling this a reload zone anyway
still up from the airdrop era so take it with salt, but 0.26 with perps volume grinding on solana, hold and forget is the correct amount of effort