This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Cosmos Hub (ATOM)
USD 1.38
USD 10.64
-87.0%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (38.7), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.48)
Low: USD 1.22
Now: USD 1.38
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 38.7 | ADX (14) | 22.8 |
| 50d MA | USD 1.67 | 200d MA | USD 1.68 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 1.28 | Resistance | USD 1.93 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.2%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ATOM | -20.9% | -25.5% | -11.2% | -26.4% |
| BTC | -10.4% | -5.2% | +20.9% | +2.3% |
| ETH | -14.1% | -15.4% | +23.8% | -1.2% |
| SOL | -19.9% | -17.5% | +5.7% | -6.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 10,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ATOM | -57.2% | -70.0% | -62.9% | 70 | 29% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ATOM)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 10,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -26.4% | USD 4,704 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -29.7% | USD 7,029 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -30.2% | USD 6,983 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -26.0% | USD 7,396 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify ATOM. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 1.28 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 1.93 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 1.21 (-12.4% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.0858 (6.2%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-10-08 | BUY | USD 1.76 | |
| 2026-10-09 | SELL | USD 2.06 | +17.2% |
| 2026-10-10 | BUY | USD 1.95 | |
| 2026-10-11 | SELL | USD 1.92 | -1.6% |
| 2026-10-12 | BUY | USD 1.81 | |
| 2026-10-13 | SELL | USD 1.84 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-14 | BUY | USD 1.76 | |
| 2026-10-15 | SELL | USD 1.75 | -0.8% |
| 2026-10-16 | BUY | USD 1.77 | |
| 2026-10-17 | SELL | USD 1.70 | -4.1% |
| 2026-10-19 | BUY | USD 1.74 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 1.71 | -1.7% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
0 for 9 bullish factors and people in my atom group still calling a reversal. below both MAs with OBV dumping, thats distribution not accumulation
the 1.22 low held twice tho. not buying, but not shorting into that support either
Down 87 percent from the 10.64 high and the 200d sits at 1.68, basically glued to the 50d. Dead coin until it reclaims 1.93.