This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Lighter (LIT)
USD 3.21
USD 5.32
-39.6%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.7)
Low: USD 0.8076
Now: USD 3.21
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 48.2 | ADX (14) | 12.2 |
| 50d MA | USD 3.57 | 200d MA | USD 2.57 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 2.70 | Resistance | USD 3.77 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.39%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| LIT | -5.0% | -33.5% | +55.3% | +133.5% |
| BTC | -10.4% | -5.2% | +20.9% | +2.3% |
| ETH | -14.1% | -15.4% | +23.8% | -1.2% |
| SOL | -19.9% | -17.5% | +5.7% | -6.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 12,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| LIT | +74.1% | +40.4% | -28.4% | 4 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (LIT)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 12,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +133.5% | USD 16,847 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +13.8% | USD 13,654 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +6.2% | USD 12,749 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +6.3% | USD 12,752 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify LIT. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 2.70 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 3.77 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 2.93 (-8.8% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.1410 (4.39%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | USD 2.34 | |
| 2026-08-02 | SELL | USD 2.02 | -13.7% |
| 2026-08-06 | BUY | USD 2.19 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | USD 3.57 | +63.3% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | USD 3.28 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | USD 4.82 | +46.7% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | USD 4.52 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | USD 3.81 | -15.7% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
39.6% off the high and the model still says neutral. stage 1 bottoming feels generous for a coin below its 50d
neutral just means the 200d is still holding. with 5 bearish factors vs 3 bullish i would not be catching this knife
resistance at 3.77 is the whole story here. LIT needs to reclaim it before anything else matters
4.39% daily ATR tho, those tests of 3.77 could just be chop. want to see a daily close above it first