Deep Dive Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
2026-09-11 10:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
77365.97
77365.97
52W HIGH
126198.07
126198.07
DRAWDOWN
-38.7%
-38.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 6 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (55.4), strong bull trend (ADX 44.6)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
BTC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 90603.19
Low: 55567.34
Now: 77365.97
Low: 55567.34
Now: 77365.97
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.4 | ADX (14) | 44.6 |
| 50d MA | 70649.35 | 200d MA | 70026.14 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 62487.70 | Resistance | 82262.21 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.7%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| BTC | -1.2% | +20.6% | -1.5% | -14.6% |
| BTC | -1.2% | +20.6% | -1.5% | -14.6% |
| ETH | -1.6% | +37.8% | +6.6% | -20.9% |
| SOL | +6.6% | +27.9% | +19.0% | -25.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
11,205
RETURN
-6.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| BTC | -6.6% | -6.0% | -25.7% | 71 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (BTC)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -14.6% | 7,996 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -4.2% | 11,493 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -7.6% | 11,083 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.8% | 11,660 |
BTC Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 73182.34 (-5.4%) |
| Target 1 | 82596.00 (6.8%) |
| Target 2 | 85733.00 (10.8%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 77830.29 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 78245.81 | +0.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 77667.57 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 78548.63 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 77403.62 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 77300.48 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 81271.74 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 79671.97 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 79823.87 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 80350.05 | +0.7% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 79115.85 | |
| END | SELL | 77365.97 | -2.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-11 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
rsi mid range after a 38.7 percent drawdown is the definition of no edge either way. this is a dca chart, nobody catches the knife clean here
honestly with macd still bearish and 82262 sitting right overhead, laddering beats any single entry. the backtest log itself flips signals every few weeks
HIGH conviction BUY while your own backtest shows -6.6% over 2 years? the honesty is appreciated but the confidence is confusing lol
Two different things. The backtest starts from 12k in 2024, this signal is stage 2 uptrend with ADX at 44.6. Trend following only loses in chop, and this is not chop.
the backtest includes the chop from 12k in 2024, the current signal is stage 2 with adx 44.6. conviction on trend strength, the two year number is noise from the sideways stretch
38.7% drawdown from the 126k high and this thing still prints a golden cross with ADX at 44.6? That trend strength reading is no joke. Watching 62,487 support like a hawk before I add though.
MACD bearish while everything else screams buy is the part nobody mentions. 6 bull vs 2 bear factors still fine, but that divergence burned me in July. Half position, rest on reclaim of 82k.
Deploying at 77,365 with resistance sitting at 82,262 seems aggressive to me, but the last signal table shows these calls flipping fast. That Sep 7 BUY at 79,115 ended -2.2%, so sizing small on this one.
@Mareike Holt the flip risk is real but RSI 55.4 with room to 70 means trend entries have room. I ladder in at 50d MA 70,649 instead of chasing spot.
38.7% drawdown from the 126k high and resistance sits at 82262. lot of overhead bagholders between here and there, cautious buy at best imo
82262 resistance with all those bagholders from the 100k days, cautious buy is fair. macd divergence plus overhead supply is why i only laddered half
half now rest on the 82k reclaim, that is the play. same overhead bagholders stopped the last two bounces at 82,262
82,262 is the line until it isnt. third test usually breaks but i want volume on the approach, not another low conviction grind like the last two bounces
same plan but my second half waits for a daily close above 82,262, not just a wick. the last two bounces died on exactly that
buying 77k with a 38.7 percent drawdown already priced in and rsi mid range. the sep 7 signal losing 2.2 percent is the reminder to size like the system flips fast
the sep 7 entry going -2.2 in four days is exactly why i split the 12k into tranches. this system has flipped on me twice already this month, sizing full here is just donating
Olek is right about tranches. The Sep 7 signal at -2.2 percent in four days is why I would wait for a second confirmation before deploying tranche two. Flipping long twice in one month hurts.
the sep 7 signal bleeding 2.2% in four days is the whole argument for tranches. adx 44.6 says trend, the 82,262 wall says patience, both can be true
both being true at once is exactly why the tranche logic wins. ADX 44.6 trend strength plus an 82,262 wall means the market resolves the disagreement for you, through the wall or back to the 50d
through the wall or back to the 50d, thats the whole trade in one sentence. im just not brave enough to hold full size into sunday
Tranche logic wins until the third tranche buys the top of the range. The Sep 7 flip cost me 2 percent to learn that lesson twice.
third test of the 82,262 wall with adx still at 44 and i take the wait side too. volume on the approach or nothing
third tranche buying the range top is the actual risk, that is why the 82,262 reclaim matters more than the entry price
golden cross printing while MACD stays bearish is such a mixed bag, but ADX at 44.6 is the number i trust here. you do not see readings like that in chop
half size here makes sense to me. golden cross with ADX 44.6 is real trend strength but entering mid-move at 77k with the 82,262 wall overhead, id rather let the third test resolve first