Deep Dive Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE)
2026-09-12 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.08
0.08
52W HIGH
0.48
0.48
DRAWDOWN
-82.5%
-82.5%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (51.7), strong bull trend (ADX 36.9)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.77)
DOGE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.15
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.08
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.08
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.7 | ADX (14) | 36.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.08 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.10 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.88%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| DOGE | -7.9% | +15.6% | -23.1% | -43.3% |
| BTC | +0.3% | +21.2% | -3.2% | -15.4% |
| ETH | +4.3% | +41.5% | +7.8% | -19.5% |
| SOL | +8.3% | +32.4% | +20.9% | -24.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,335
RETURN
-39.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-61.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| DOGE | -39.0% | -49.2% | -61.4% | 56 | 43% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (DOGE)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -43.3% | 10,241 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -31.3% | 24,041 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -29.9% | 24,527 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -22.6% | 27,085 |
DOGE Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-9.8%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 0.08 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 0.08 | -3.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.09 | +1.3% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.09 | -0.7% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | 0.08 | -3.8% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.08 | +0.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-12 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
52w high of 0.48 and now 0.08, thats an 82% drawdown and the verdict is still HOLD lol. the copium on this coin is eternal
@wenmoon_88 the backtest at least admits the crossover turned 35k into 21k. holding thru an 82% drawdown is brutal but the honesty is rare for these pieces
0.07 support held twice this summer tho. copium or not the invalidation is clean, below 0.07 the hold thesis is dead and everyone knows it
The backtest section is the honest part here. 35,000 turned into 21,335 following the 50d/200d crossover. That is a system that loses money on DOGE, full stop.
been holding since the 0.07 support held. resistance at 0.10 is the real test, if that breaks with volume this analysis ages badly
0.10 resistance point is fair but volume on DOGE has been drying up for weeks. dont see that breakout coming without a btc shove first
held 0.07 twice but with volume drying up the third test feels different. needs that btc shove or its a slow bleed back to 0.07
82% down from the 0.48 high and the verdict is still HOLD. doge holders really are built different
built different is one word for holding a -82% meme bag lol. cope is another
35k portfolio and the honest answer is hold through an 82% drawdown. respect for not pretending theres a magic exit
the part nobody quotes is 50d/200d turning 35k into 21,335. the system lost money and still beat holding. that tells you everything about this chart
0.10 resistance decides everything here. weekly close above it and the hold flips to a buy thesis, another rejection and 0.07 comes back fast
@Diane Osei volume is the missing piece on that 0.10 break. renato flagged it drying up for weeks, without a btc shove this just chops between 0.07 and 0.10
The backtest turned 35k into 21k and that was the STRATEGY option. Holding did worse. Brutal honesty, respect
^ yep, -39% with rules vs just riding it down. says everything about this chart
honest about losing 14k of a 35k stack, respect. but at some point HOLD is just admitting you never sold and calling it strategy lol
counterpoint to muchwow_, the crossover system did worse than the bag. holding at least saves you from selling the bottom right before a 0.10 break
difference between never sold and sized it so holding costs nothing. a 0.07 invalidation line on a meme bag is more discipline than most btc maxis show
RSI 51.7 and ADX 36.9 with a death cross underneath. no edge in either direction, WAIT is the only sane play here
RSI dead center with a death cross underneath is the textbook definition of nothing. either the weekly closes over 0.10 or this stays a coin you ignore
4 bull vs 5 bear factors and WAIT. the rare analysis where doing nothing is genuinely the alpha
weekly close over 0.10 with volume behind it, everything else is noise. renato already flagged the volume missing so this is a WAIT wearing a HOLD jersey