Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
2026-09-09 08:31 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
8.47
8.47
52W HIGH
39.92
39.92
DRAWDOWN
-78.8%
-78.8%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (68.1), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 41.1), vol 2.24x on up day
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
ETC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 12.04
Low: 6.02
Now: 8.47
Low: 6.02
Now: 8.47
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 68.1 | ADX (14) | 41.1 |
| 50d MA | 7.02 | 200d MA | 7.83 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 6.02 | Resistance | 9.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.69%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETC | +29.6% | +22.8% | +0.8% | -29.7% |
| BTC | +15.0% | +27.9% | +1.9% | -10.3% |
| ETH | +11.9% | +44.6% | +9.8% | -16.0% |
| SOL | +22.8% | +34.8% | +25.2% | -17.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
30,404
RETURN
-13.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETC | -13.1% | -50.6% | -31.0% | 55 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETC)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -29.7% | 14,151 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -18.4% | 28,544 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -21.3% | 27,539 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -13.4% | 30,298 |
ETC Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 7.55 (-10.9%) |
| Target 1 | 10.00 (18.1%) |
| Target 2 | 10.00 (18.1%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.3) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 7.18 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 7.28 | +1.4% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 7.24 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 7.27 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 7.59 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 7.45 | -1.9% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 7.74 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 7.86 | +1.5% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 7.91 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 8.60 | +8.7% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 8.47 | |
| END | SELL | 8.47 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-09 08:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
15% of a 35k portfolio into ETC with R:R of 1.3 is bold for a conservative institutional framing lol. midrange entry at best
15% is bold but the bigger problem is the stop. 7.55 gets swept on any red ETH day, that entry zone needs a rework
7.55 getting swept on a red eth day is basically tradition at this point. widen the stop or skip the trade entirely
ETC at 8.5ish with a 10 dollar target and a stop at 7.55. risk 95 to make 145, ill pass but respect the plan
95 to make 145 is actually 1.5:1, slightly better than the 1.3 hans quoted. still thin for a coin that follows ETH down but rallies at half speed
1.5 to 1 is still thin for a coin that follows ETH down but rallies at half speed. that 12 buy DCA at -13.4 percent is the only part that fits how ETC actually trades
^ the 12 buy DCA at -13.4 beating the signal entry is the most ETC thing ever. even the backtest knows to just average and stop looking
8 of 10 factors green is tempting but the backtest did -13.1% across 55 trades. system says buy, its own history says 42% win rate lol
42% win rate with 1.3 R:R is still positive expectancy math, trend systems never win most trades. the -13.1% backtest across 55 trades is the actual red flag
that 12-buy DCA at -13.4% beat the strategy return, honestly just says the signal fires early
death cross still lingering from the 39.92 high and im supposed to deploy at 8.47? resistance at 9.04 is right there, id rather wait for the 50d retest at 7.02
a retest at 7.02 assumes the 50d waits for you. vol 2.24x on an up day is exactly why systems like this buy strength, pullbacks often never come
stop at 7.55 sits right under the 200d at 7.83, decent structure for a first tranche tbh
the 7.02 retest crowd said the same at 7.83 earlier this summer and watched it leave without them. waiting for perfect entries on ETC has cost more than bad stops
waiting for the 7.02 retest has been the etc widowmaker trade since june. price above both moving averages says it aint coming back for you
death cross still on the chart while ADX reads 41.1 strong bull trend, the indicators literally disagree with each other. if 9.04 breaks this whole thread ages badly
if 9.04 goes the death cross argument dies with it. one clean close above and every lagging indicator flips bullish within a week, thats just how ETC moves
indicators disagreeing is literally why the R:R is 1.3 instead of 3. if death cross and ADX agreed the entry would be six bucks
etc has never cared about indicator coherence in its life. it can honor the death cross and the adx 41 trend at the same time, thats the trick of this chart
8 of 10 factors green and the plan still only risks 95 to make 145 on ETC. even the bull case here sounds tired
A 35k portfolio risking 95 to make 145 on a death cross chart says everything about ETC momentum right now. I would want double that ratio before touching this.
-78.8% from the 39.92 high and the system still calls it an uptrend. technically correct, emotionally devastating