Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
2026-09-26 15:03 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
9.53
9.53
52W HIGH
39.92
39.92
DRAWDOWN
-76.1%
-76.1%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (67.1), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 44.7), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 2.4)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
ETC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 12.25
Low: 6.02
Now: 9.53
Low: 6.02
Now: 9.53
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 67.1 | ADX (14) | 44.7 |
| 50d MA | 7.55 | 200d MA | 7.80 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 7.09 | Resistance | 10.38 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.78%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETC | +23.2% | +42.3% | +6.8% | -22.2% |
| BTC | +5.3% | +30.6% | +9.2% | -10.3% |
| ETH | +8.4% | +43.5% | +26.3% | -18.0% |
| SOL | +17.1% | +62.3% | +41.6% | -12.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
37,037
RETURN
+5.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETC | +5.8% | -37.4% | -31.0% | 63 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETC)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -22.2% | 18,275 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -4.2% | 33,519 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -4.4% | 33,467 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.2% | 34,920 |
ETC Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 7.98 (-16.3%) |
| Target 1 | 11.00 (15.4%) |
| Target 2 | 12.00 (25.9%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.06) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 7.19 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 7.37 | +2.5% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 7.51 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 8.15 | +8.5% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 8.57 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 8.53 | -0.5% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 8.88 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 9.42 | +6.1% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 8.73 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 9.38 | +7.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 9.49 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 9.53 | +0.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-26 15:03 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
35k deployed on a chain with two rollbacks in its history because a volume ratio looked nice. the conviction label is doing heavy lifting here
BUY rating on a 1.06 risk reward with midrange entry quality? that is a coin flip with extra steps imo
agree the entry is nothing special, but the structure is fine. stop at 7.98 with targets at 11 and 12 is where the math starts working
1.06 risk reward is thin until you notice the targets at 11 and 12 sit right under the old supply zone. thin entry, fat targets, it kinda balances out
coin flip is generous. a 1.06 risk reward with the death cross still sitting on the daily is negative ev unless you size tiny. tho that OBV point upthread has me second guessing
negative ev unless you size tiny has been the entire etc thesis since 2016 honestly. at least sizing small on a resolving death cross is honest risk math
5,250 into etc under a conservative institutional label, wild. etc has not been conservative since the 51% attack days
etc maxis pretending the 51% attack era is ancient history while aping at 9.53 lol. it did double off the june low tho, i get the fomo
the june double off the low happened on zero news though. this push has etf adjacent flows behind it, different animal even with the attack history
Deploying 35k into ETC on an 8-2 factor count is bold. RSI at 67 is fine, but a 76 percent drawdown from the 39.92 high says this trend system burned people here before too.
burned people yes, but the same system flagged the june double off the low. 23 percent months dont wait for perfect setups
the june double also happened while everyone was staring at halving flows. attention does weird things to thin order books
RSI 67 with a death cross still sitting on the daily and they call it high conviction. that 2.4 volume ratio is doing all the work in the 8-2 count
ADX at 44.7 with RSI 67 is about as clean a trend signal as you get on ETC. Only thing keeping me cautious is the death cross still sitting there on the daily. If it clears 10.38 resistance this gets interesting fast.
10.38 is the tell. clears that and the death cross convo is dead, fails there and the 8-2 count looks silly
Gorc the 200d MA is at 7.80 and price is 9.53, so the death cross is already resolving. Thats probably why they flagged Stage 2 uptrend. Stop at 7.98 makes sense right above that 7.09 support.
People sleeping on the fact that ETC is up 23% in a month while still 76% off the high. OBV rising with vol ratio 2.4 means someone is actually accumulating, not just noise.
up 23% in a month and still 76% off the 39.92 high is a bounce, not a trend. but ya, vol ratio 2.4 is hard to argue with
35k deployment on a chain with two 51 percent attacks in its history is conviction I dont have. the 9.53 tape is clean but sizing that big needs an exit plan written in stone
stop 7.98, targets 11 and 12. those old supply zones exist because everyone got trapped up there, the 51 percent attack history is why nobody defended it
a 7.98 stop under the structure is at least honest sizing. most of the crowd aping etc at 9.53 has no idea where their exit is
targets at 11 and 12 into supply that hasnt been reclaimed since the 2020 attacks, ill take the first one and rotate thanks. etc rallies are rental agreements not ownership
nobody defended 39.92 because the chain got rolled back twice trying to get there. etc supply zones are scar tissue. that said 9.53 with a 2.4 vol ratio is a cleaner tape than this coin deserves
a 35000 deployment plan on etc of all chains is bold. at least stagger the buy zones, one bad wick on this thing and the whole ladder is gone
23 percent month and the usual suspects still call it dead. price holding above the 200d at 7.80 while OBV climbs reads like accumulation, capitulation candles are nowhere in sight