Deep Dive Analysis
Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC)
2026-10-07 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.04
1.04
52W HIGH
1.08
1.08
DRAWDOWN
-3.4%
-3.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 8 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (51.8), rising 1m & 3m, within 10% of high, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 3.99)
Bearish factors: death cross
FIGR_HELOC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.03
Low: 0.23
Now: 1.04
Low: 0.23
Now: 1.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.8 | ADX (14) | 6.8 |
| 50d MA | 1.02 | 200d MA | 1.02 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.00 | Resistance | 1.08 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.67%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIGR_HELOC | +3.5% | +3.7% | -0.6% | +1.2% |
| BTC | +10.3% | +30.0% | +14.5% | -0.7% |
| ETH | +8.2% | +37.1% | +29.9% | -7.2% |
| SOL | +20.1% | +60.1% | +44.6% | +0.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,422
RETURN
-37.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-38.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIGR_HELOC | -37.2% | -0.6% | -38.6% | 33 | 24% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIGR_HELOC)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +1.2% | 14,917 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +1.9% | 15,289 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +1.6% | 15,244 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +1.3% | 15,199 |
FIGR_HELOC Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.00 (-3.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-3.7%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-3.7%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 1.03 | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 1.00 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-24 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-25 | SELL | 1.03 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.00 | -5.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-10-03 | SELL | 1.04 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-04 | BUY | 1.07 | |
| 2026-10-05 | SELL | 1.08 | +0.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-07 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
8 bull factors vs 1 bear, yet the 2 year backtest shows -37.2% with a 24% win rate. the indicators and the simulation cannot both be telling the truth
They actually can. ADX at 6.8 means zero trend, so a trend following system just bleeds out in a range. The bull factors are real, the strategy is wrong for this asset
they can both be true, ADX 6.8 literally means no trend so a trend system prints losses while every bull factor sits there waiting. the backtest is the honest part
‘@0xhelo both can be true actually, adx 6.8 with a 3.99 vol ratio is a coiled range with no direction to follow yet. the backtest bleeds for exactly that reason
who is deploying 15k into something called FIGR_HELOC at 1.04 with a 52w low of 0.23. feel like nobody can even buy this thing
you can, it trades on a few dex pairs, spreads are just ugly. the real filter is a 15k order would be a visible chunk of daily volume on this thing
thats the part nobody pricing in, a 15k order would show up on the tape. the hold call only works if you can actually exit at the marked price
exactly, the pair does maybe 200k a day. the hold call at 1.04 is really a liquidity confession dressed up as patience
200k daily and half of that is probably the same bot ping ponging itself. any exit at size is theoretical until someone actually tries it
the bot ping pong theory checks out, look at the tape. nothing above lunch money prints on that pair all day
This is the detail that made me respect the HOLD call. The backtest is honest enough to admit the sim assumes exits that dont exist at size.
8 bull factors against 1 bear and the verdict is still WAIT lol. trend followers really out here demanding a notarized invitation
the lone bear factor is the death cross and thats lagging by months, price is only 3.4% off the 52w high. conservative call but i get it
OBV climbing with a 3.99 vol ratio screams accumulation. RSI 51.8 means room to run too. holding my deployment alongside this plan
obv climbs in every sideways chop too, its not confirmation of anything with adx at 6.8. the -37.2 backtest is telling you exactly what happens deploying 15k into a range
a minus 37.2 backtest while sitting 3 percent off the ath is a fun combo. tight range, no trend, the system just shrugs correctly
the 3.99 vol ratio on 200k daily is the whole article in one number. market makers quoting themselves while the backtest eats minus 37
vol ratio 3.99 into a flat tape is just stop hunting in a phone booth. wake me up when adx gets a pulse above 15
phone booth is generous, its a phone booth with one exit. 3.99 vol ratio on 200k daily is three bots fighting over the same tick
1.04 against a 1.08 high, hold is the only sane call. hard to trend follow anything when the entire yearly range fits in a 5 cent band
a 3.99 vol ratio into a 5 cent range is just bots speedrunning each other. hold is generous, delist watch is the real label
delist watch is harsh but 200k daily on a heloc token is not a market, its a waiting room