Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-08-10 10:32 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.70
0.70
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-91.6%
-91.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (44.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 30.7)
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.53
Low: 0.63
Now: 0.70
Low: 0.63
Now: 0.70
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.3 | ADX (14) | 30.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.74 | 200d MA | 0.89 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.66 | Resistance | 0.80 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.4%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | -4.6% | -9.4% | -16.2% | -54.3% |
| BTC | +0.0% | +3.4% | -4.2% | -28.6% |
| ETH | +1.2% | +14.0% | -9.9% | -35.7% |
| SOL | -1.1% | +15.2% | -5.3% | -44.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
29,535
RETURN
-15.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -15.6% | -77.9% | -30.1% | 38 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -54.3% | 9,916 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -51.8% | 16,870 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -40.4% | 20,844 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -43.5% | 19,761 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.64 (-8.8%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (42.7%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (42.7%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-13 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-05-14 | SELL | 1.05 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-15 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-05-16 | SELL | 0.97 | -3.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.96 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.94 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.97 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.01 | +3.8% |
| 2026-05-23 | BUY | 0.98 | |
| 2026-05-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -2.6% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 0.98 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 1.01 | +2.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-10 10:32 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
91.6% from the high and still Stage 4 downtrend. some people needed this article to finally stop averaging down
91.6pct drawdown and people still holding. at some point you just accept its dead capital and move on
dead capital that still costs you attention every cycle. at some point the honest move is the tax loss and the lesson
held from the 190s, averaged down twice, still underwater years later. at some point ‘long term hold’ is just a story you tell yourself about a bad entry
1 bull factor vs 8 bear and the bull factor is just MACD cross lol. thats not a signal thats a trap
agree on the avoid call but FIL storage use case is real, just not as a price go up token. different thing
ForkBob storage use case being real doesnt help tokenholders when FIL is inflationary by design. storage providers get paid in newly minted FIL
ForkBob exactly. FIL storage demand is real but tokenomics are poison for holders. inflationary token on a storage network means providers dump on the market constantly
and the burn from storage fees never keeps pace with emissions. providers get fresh FIL whether anyone fetches the files or not, dump pressure is structural
The part nobody says out loud: most Filecoin storage deals are written once and never read again. Cold storage with zero retrieval demand is a warehouse of write-only data, and the token funds all of it.
and the deal bounties literally pay you for storing anything, a blank pdf counts the same as real demand. utilization charts are self reported theater at 0.70
this is the smoking gun. utilization counts deals, deals count bounties, nobody counts retrieval. the headline metric has no demand signal behind it and the chart has been saying so for years
if retrieval volume were real someone would publish it. the silence around read demand is the loudest chart in this whole thesis
two years building on storage nets, never once seen a retrieval SLA. deals get signed, bounties get paid, reads are folklore
retrieval SLA point is underrated. i ran a storage deal for 8 months and the client pulled the file exactly once, at onboarding
if reads were real the team would put a dashboard on the front page. they publish everything except the one number that matters
a sell rating with one bull factor out of nine and the bull case is a macd cross on a 91 percent drawdown lol. even the bull section reads like a hostage note
52 week high 8.38, price 0.70. the drawdown stat is the whole analysis and everything else is footnotes. real question is opportunity cost, dead money here while everything else grinds
Dead money is the real cost. Three years parked at 0.70 while majors did multiples. Opportunity cost belongs on line one of every sell case.
Opportunity cost on line one and people will still read this and average in again. At 0.70 the bag is a museum piece, you visit it, you dont add to it.
a five year chart of lower highs and the essay still has to explain itself. at some point the deployment plan is just paperwork for admitting you held a loser since 2021
Storage utilization climbing year after year while the chart makes new lows is the whole FIL story. Usage stats and token returns are different asset classes, treat them like it.
finally sold my last bag at 0.71 after buying near 8 twice. a formal sell rating is the closure i needed
buying near 8 TWICE and keeping a bag to exit at 0.71, the discipline was never the problem the direction was. congrats on the closure, cleaner than most manage
ColdStorageChris buying near 8 TWICE is the part that hurts to read. congrats on actually closing it, most people just stop opening the app and call it a long term hold