Deep Dive Analysis
Wormhole (W)
2026-08-12 15:39 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.41
0.41
DRAWDOWN
-98.0%
-98.0%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 0 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (39.8), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.81)
W Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.04
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 39.8 | ADX (14) | 22.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.89%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| W | -10.2% | -5.2% | -38.2% | -80.8% |
| BTC | -4.2% | +3.0% | -5.4% | -31.3% |
| ETH | -2.5% | +16.4% | -8.2% | -39.9% |
| SOL | -3.2% | +19.4% | -6.2% | -45.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
25,015
RETURN
-28.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-43.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| W | -28.5% | -94.2% | -43.0% | 13 | 54% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (W)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -80.8% | 3,121 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -69.8% | 10,586 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -60.9% | 13,691 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -61.7% | 13,422 |
W Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-9.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-05-27 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2025-05-28 | SELL | 0.10 | -1.2% |
| 2025-05-29 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2025-05-30 | SELL | 0.08 | -16.1% |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2025-09-12 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.0% |
| 2025-09-13 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2025-09-14 | SELL | 0.09 | -3.7% |
| 2025-09-16 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2025-09-17 | SELL | 0.10 | +11.1% |
| 2025-09-19 | BUY | 0.11 | |
| 2025-10-10 | SELL | 0.08 | -31.9% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-12 15:39 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
98% drawdown and they still call it a deployment plan lol. just say avoid and move on
@bridge_auditor_ fr the backtest shows -28.5% with the strategy vs -94% buy and hold. both are terrible, why even bother writing this up
98% drawdown from 0.41 is insane. who was buying wormhole at those levels lmao
down 80% in a year while SOL did +19% in the same window. cross-chain narratives are dead money
rethke_42 the bridges still move billions, the token just captures none of it. infrastructure can win while its token goes to zero, W is the case study
mara_v people buying W at 0.41 were the same ones aping SOL at 210. pure momentum chasing with zero fundamentals
Wormhole had one job after the 2024 bridge exploit and somehow made things worse. -80% in a year is impressive in the worst way
Tomas H. the 2024 exploit was the writing on the wall. bridge protocols that get hacked once almost never recover trust, and wormhole proved it
the backtest lost 28.5% and that was the GOOD outcome vs buy and hold losing 94%. 54% win rate on 13 trades is basically a coin flip too
RSI 39.8 with ADX 22.3, thats weak trend no momentum either way. calling it SELL is generous, looks more like slow bleed to zero
13 trades in a year with 54% win rate is literally random. you could flip a coin and get the same result without paying management fees
Greta F. 13 trades is not a sample size. you need hundreds before a win rate means anything. calling 54% random on 13 trades is as lazy as the backtest itself
^ and the coin is down 97 percent from the 0.41 high, even a broken SELL call prints when everything already fell off a cliff. the interesting part is sizing 35k into a book this thin
thin book is the whole point, 35k of sells at 0.01 probably IS the resistance. deployment plans are how microcaps die
a 35k deployment plan for a token trading at one cent. the honest article is a single sentence: nothing to deploy here, move on
the honest version is planning 35k of exits against a one cent book. someone has to take the other side and it wont be the people actually using the bridge
Bao N. this. someone computed a 35k exit plan against a book where 35k basically IS the book. the SELL is obvious, the liquidity math is the actual content
bridge still settles billions and the token sits at 0.01 against a 0.41 high. the sell thesis is just admitting W never captured any of that volume, the chart priced that in months ago
true that the bridge settles billions while the token captures none of it. the question never answered is emissions, if the unlock schedule is done then 0.01 already prices in full dilution
if the unlock schedule is done and it still sits at one cent, the market already voted. holding W here is charity for earlier exiters
Lien V. 35k of sells in a book where 35k basically IS the book, someone should chart the slippage on that exit plan. the SELL is obvious, the liquidity math is the story
book_depth_ someone should also chart what happens to the 0.01 level if a 35k seller front runs olivers schedule. thin books punish published exit plans
Ilkka V. if emissions are done then 0.01 prices in full dilution and its still dead money. that argues the market just thinks wormhole captures zero value, full stop
a SELL thesis on a token already down 97 percent from 0.41 to 0.01, brave stuff. either size it as a lottery ticket or move on, nobody needs a deployment plan to exit a microcap
unlock_sam_ disagree, the deployment plan is the content. a SELL call with no sizing plan is just a hot take with a chart attached
W at 0.01 while the bridge settled billions all year. infrastructure without fee capture is a charity with a ticker