Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-09-22 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.01
1.01
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-88.0%
-88.0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (66.7), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 27.9), vol 1.47x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.61)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.59
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.01
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 66.7 | ADX (14) | 27.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.77 | 200d MA | 0.84 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.65 | Resistance | 1.12 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.27%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | +29.7% | +31.4% | -4.1% | -36.5% |
| BTC | +11.4% | +29.7% | +6.4% | -11.0% |
| ETH | +13.4% | +42.2% | +20.2% | -18.3% |
| SOL | +17.0% | +49.8% | +27.0% | -20.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,910
RETURN
-13.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -13.9% | -57.0% | -30.1% | 50 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -36.5% | 6,761 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -10.0% | 13,493 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -10.1% | 13,491 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.1% | 14,690 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.82 (-18.4%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-1.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-1.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.18) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.79 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.80 | +2.0% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 0.95 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | 0.94 | -1.8% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 0.82 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 0.81 | -1.2% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 0.84 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 0.94 | +12.3% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.96 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.94 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.99 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 1.01 | +2.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-22 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
9 bull factors on a coin that went 8.38 to 1.01. respect the OBV signal but 15k deployment on a stage 2 call this early is brave, MACD just flipped, give it a week
9 bull factors and yet there it is in the bearish column: death cross. FIL at $1.01 after peaking at 8.38, this is less a signal more a hostage situation
hostage situation is funny but OBV up with a 1.61 vol ratio means someone is actually accumulating between 1.00 and 1.10, not just holding and praying
death cross on FIL has been a lagging joke since 2021, it crossed and price had bottomed months earlier both times. stale indicator on a storage coin with real usage
Calling 88% drawdown a Stage 2 uptrend is bold, but the ADX at 27.9 with OBV accumulation is a fair point. Still not touching it under $1 though.
agree on waiting under 1 dollar does nothing, either the 50d holds or it doesnt. ADX 27.9 is decent, not the 35 monster, so half the 15k now and the rest if the cross clears
that 1.00 to 1.10 accumulation window could be one whale refreshing a bid. give me a weekly close above the 200d before calling it stage 2, FIL loves a fakeout
same gut on the 1.00 to 1.10 window being one bid. but ADX at 27.9 with price still under a dollar is interesting, waiting for the weekly close above the 200d before adding anything
@Tomasz the 50d is rising and price is above it, thats literally the definition. i rode FIL from 3 to 9 back then, the trend logic works until it doesnt lol