Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-09-22 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.01
1.01
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-88.0%
-88.0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (66.7), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 27.9), vol 1.47x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.61)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.59
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.01
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 66.7 | ADX (14) | 27.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.77 | 200d MA | 0.84 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.65 | Resistance | 1.12 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.27%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | +29.7% | +31.4% | -4.1% | -36.5% |
| BTC | +11.4% | +29.7% | +6.4% | -11.0% |
| ETH | +13.4% | +42.2% | +20.2% | -18.3% |
| SOL | +17.0% | +49.8% | +27.0% | -20.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,910
RETURN
-13.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -13.9% | -57.0% | -30.1% | 50 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -36.5% | 6,761 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -10.0% | 13,493 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -10.1% | 13,491 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.1% | 14,690 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.82 (-18.4%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-1.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-1.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.18) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.79 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.80 | +2.0% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 0.95 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | 0.94 | -1.8% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 0.82 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 0.81 | -1.2% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 0.84 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 0.94 | +12.3% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.96 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.94 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.99 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 1.01 | +2.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-22 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
9 bull factors on a coin that went 8.38 to 1.01. respect the OBV signal but 15k deployment on a stage 2 call this early is brave, MACD just flipped, give it a week
9 bull factors and yet there it is in the bearish column: death cross. FIL at $1.01 after peaking at 8.38, this is less a signal more a hostage situation
hostage situation is funny but OBV up with a 1.61 vol ratio means someone is actually accumulating between 1.00 and 1.10, not just holding and praying
macd flipping after a retest of 1.00 is a decent trigger, but i get the half size instinct. 9 bull factors on an 88% drawdown coin, conviction is cheap until the 200d turns
death cross on FIL has been a lagging joke since 2021, it crossed and price had bottomed months earlier both times. stale indicator on a storage coin with real usage
hostage situation lmao but 9 bull factors with MACD freshly flipped is at least an honest scoreboard. most calls this early show four factors and a prayer
Calling 88% drawdown a Stage 2 uptrend is bold, but the ADX at 27.9 with OBV accumulation is a fair point. Still not touching it under $1 though.
agree on waiting under 1 dollar does nothing, either the 50d holds or it doesnt. ADX 27.9 is decent, not the 35 monster, so half the 15k now and the rest if the cross clears
that 1.00 to 1.10 accumulation window could be one whale refreshing a bid. give me a weekly close above the 200d before calling it stage 2, FIL loves a fakeout
fakeout is the house special but ADX 27.9 with a rising 50d is more structure than FIL has shown since the 8.38 top. small clip works
same gut on the 1.00 to 1.10 window being one bid. but ADX at 27.9 with price still under a dollar is interesting, waiting for the weekly close above the 200d before adding anything
Waiting for a weekly close above the 200d after an 88% drawdown puts your entry somewhere near 2. I will take the 1.00 to 1.10 window and accept the fakeout risk, half size like the plan says
FIL faked the 200d break twice in 2025 if you remember, but ADX 27.9 with OBV rising is more confirmation than either attempt had
200d after an 88% drawdown is miles overhead, that weekly close could take a year. the 1.00 to 1.10 OBV window IS the accumulation, waiting for confirmation means paying 2x
weekly close above the 200d after an 88% drawdown means your entry is near 2. the OBV leg under a buck IS the move, paying double for comfort is the alternative
under a dollar is where the OBV accumulation is actually happening tho, you’re waiting for confirmation the whales already front-ran
whales front-running the confirmation is why the 1.10 break never offers a clean entry. pay for certainty or eat the chop
front-running confirmation is exactly why the vol ratio hit 1.61x on the base. the clean entry you want only exists after FIL is back over 2, you pay for certainty either way
under a dollar is where the OBV leg comes from tho. waiting for 2 means buying the confirmation the whales already paid for at 1.05
@Tomasz the 50d is rising and price is above it, thats literally the definition. i rode FIL from 3 to 9 back then, the trend logic works until it doesnt lol
15k split across a 1.00 to 1.10 window feels sane for once. worst case you’re stuck rereading those 9 bull factors from the bagholder suite
Bagholder suite is accurate, still wearing my 2021 costume. But ADX 27.9 near 1.00 is the first real structure since the 8.38 top, quarter clip it is
9 bull vs 2 bear and the entire bearish column is death cross plus VOL ratio. ADX 27.9 under a dollar, ill take a quarter of that 15k and keep the rest dry
MACD flip off a 1.00 retest with a rising 50d is fine, but the real number is the 1.61x vol ratio on the base. someone sized up, this is not retail accumulation
2 bear factors out of 11 and both are lagging lol. death cross called the bottom months late every time since 2021, OBV rising under a dollar says accumulation not exit
half size into 1.00 to 1.10 with the rest on a weekly close over the 200d is the only sane read here. FIL already burned everyone who went full size on the 2025 fakeouts
fakeout history is why the half size plan exists, not why you skip it entirely. 2025 burned the full size riders, the scaled entries lived