This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Arbitrum (ARB)
USD 0.1782
USD 0.3067
-41.9%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, MACD+, RSI healthy (54.2), vol 1.35x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, far below high
Low: USD 0.0727
Now: USD 0.1782
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 54.2 | ADX (14) | 12.4 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.1869 | 200d MA | USD 0.1240 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 0.1542 | Resistance | USD 0.1995 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.61%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ARB | -9.5% | +5.2% | +134.3% | +74.9% |
| BTC | -9.3% | -6.2% | +23.7% | +8.7% |
| ETH | -12.3% | -15.4% | +31.0% | +6.3% |
| SOL | -17.4% | -16.6% | +12.0% | -0.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 15,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ARB | +61.4% | +70.9% | -26.5% | 11 | 54% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ARB)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 15,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +74.9% | USD 25,628 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +82.0% | USD 27,302 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +78.5% | USD 26,778 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +73.7% | USD 26,052 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify ARB. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.1542 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.1995 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.1637 (-8.1% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.006437 (3.61%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Midrange |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | USD 0.1093 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | USD 0.1103 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | USD 0.1318 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | USD 0.1776 | +34.8% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | USD 0.1694 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | USD 0.1649 | -2.6% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | USD 0.1494 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | USD 0.1399 | -6.4% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | USD 0.1395 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | USD 0.1404 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | USD 0.1333 | |
| 2026-10-23 | SELL | USD 0.1789 | +34.3% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
-41.9% off the 0.3067 high and the model still calls it stage 1 bottoming. bought the 0.1542 support test last month, holding heavy
same boat. that september stretch where it gave back 6.4% right after the 34.8% winner is exactly why i sized small on this one
Price under the 50d at 0.1869 but well above the 200d at 0.1240. Classic no-man’s land, and ADX at 12.4 confirms there’s no trend to trade here.
funniest row on the page is DCA 4 buys at +82% beating lump sum at +74.9%. even the sim is telling you timing arb is a coin flip