Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-10-01 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.11
0.11
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-73.7%
-73.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (61.6), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 52.4), vol 1.29x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 3.47)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.11
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.11
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.11
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 61.6 | ADX (14) | 52.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.08 | 200d MA | 0.08 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.13 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.38%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | +40.4% | +53.5% | +17.1% | -4.0% |
| BTC | +8.9% | +28.8% | +8.7% | -6.9% |
| ETH | +9.9% | +39.7% | +26.6% | -9.3% |
| SOL | +19.1% | +57.9% | +37.2% | -7.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
24,169
RETURN
+61.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +61.1% | -37.0% | -31.5% | 52 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -4.0% | 6,924 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +1.5% | 15,226 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +2.9% | 15,429 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +6.9% | 16,038 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.09 (-18.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.2) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.09 | +6.3% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.09 | +2.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.12 | +27.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.10 | +2.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.11 | |
| END | SELL | 0.11 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-01 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
73.7% drawdown from the 0.40 high and it still prints a BUY. trend systems are fearless like that lol, support at 0.07 feels miles away tho
right tho? RSI 61.6 with ADX at 52 means the trend leg is real. resistance at 0.13 is basically +18%, id deploy but stagger the 15k instead of lumping it
^ agreed on staggering. lumping 15k at 0.11 right under 0.13 resistance is just asking for a ugly entry
Staggering only works if pullbacks stay shallow. With support at 0.07 that first tranche can go underwater 30% fast, that is the risk nobody prices.
0.07 support is a 36 percent dive from 0.11, marta is the only one pricing it. staggered entries dont save you when the stop sits that far down
9 bull factors vs 2 bear is a bold split when one of the bears is a death cross. backtest looks clean on paper, those whipsaws feel different with real money in
whipsaws are exactly why the stop sits all the way down at 0.07. trend systems eat that kind of risk for breakfast, your stomach is the actual constraint
a death cross, 73 percent off the 0.40 high, and the model still prints BUY for 15k. trend systems have zero fear, thats the whole brand i guess
ADX 52.4 with OBV climbing is the only reason im even looking at this. trend following on hbar has burned me twice before tho
hbar council governance gets zero mentions in these trend pieces but that is the actual reason institutions keep piloting on it. 0.11 is a governance bet, ADX 52 is just the entry timer
council membership is why im holding hbar at all but lets be real, governance is a 3 year thesis. ADX 52 and the 0.13 level are the only testable parts of this piece
adx 52 with OBV climbing is about as clean as hbar setups get. problem is everyone sees it, which is exactly why 0.13 keeps rejecting
council membership is why im holding hbar at all, ADX 52 is what times the entry. both matter, on different clocks
A death cross listed under bearish factors and the verdict is still DEPLOY at high conviction? The system weights momentum over everything, which is fine, but say that plainly.
Ines has a point on the death cross, but with price above both moving averages it is usually a lagging non-event. The 0.07 support is the actual line that matters here.
@Ines its 9 bull vs 2 bear, one death cross aint killing the signal when price is above both MAs lol
73% down from the 0.40 high and still called stage 2. coins never die they just get recycled into new analysis pieces
Deploying 15k into a coin 73 percent off highs takes nerve. RSI 61 is healthy but I would stage the entries instead of one shot.
staging entries is exactly right, i lump summed at 0.31 last year and watched it bleed for months. never again
lump sum at 0.31 club reporting for losses too. splitting the 15k into thirds under 0.12 is the only version of this trade i can stomach
0.31 club membership never expires huh. at least we caught the 0.08 run, quarters under 0.12 now and never lumping again
0.31 club here too, three years of membership fees paid. thirds under 0.12 is reasonable, ill do quarters just to feel some control lmao
9 bull vs 2 bear factors and the trend already ran from 0.08 to 0.11. I would rather wait for the 0.13 break and pay up. Missed entries are cheaper than bad ones.
nobody mentioning 15k is an arbitrary size for a coin moving eight figures daily. treat this as the signal, size your own tranches off your own book
agreed, 15k is a template number not a recommendation. your own book sets the tranche size, everything else is decoration
everyone trading the ADX print, nobody asking who buys hbar at scale. council pilots set the demand, the chart just times it