Deep Dive Analysis
Kaspa (KAS)
2026-07-22 15:04 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.03
0.03
52W HIGH
0.21
0.21
DRAWDOWN
-86.5%
-86.5%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (42.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.69)
KAS Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 42.0 | ADX (14) | 12.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.03 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.03 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.56%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KAS | -8.7% | -19.4% | -7.7% | -41.9% |
| BTC | +9.6% | -15.1% | -7.3% | -34.0% |
| ETH | +20.1% | -9.2% | -7.7% | -40.2% |
| SOL | +0.8% | -9.4% | -11.6% | -46.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
23,880
RETURN
-31.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-44.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KAS | -31.8% | -67.8% | -44.3% | 47 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -41.9% | 9,437 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -41.4% | 20,515 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -40.8% | 20,707 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -36.0% | 22,392 |
KAS Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.03 (-7.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-04-19 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-04-20 | SELL | 0.03 | +1.9% |
| 2026-05-05 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-06 | SELL | 0.04 | +6.1% |
| 2026-05-10 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | 0.04 | +4.7% |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 0.04 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.03 | -3.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 0.04 | +1.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-22 15:04 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
bought KAS at 0.18 last cycle, the blockDAG narrative was so strong. watching it bleed to 0.03 hurts lol
kaspa_2022_bag bought at 0.18 too. the blockDAG story was everywhere and now KAS is down 85%. at least the analysis is honest about the downside
kaspa_2022_bag blockDAG narrative was pure Twitter KOL marketing. GhostDAG sounded technical enough that nobody questioned whether it actually mattered
8 bear factors and 0 bull, that is as one-sided as it gets. the 47% win rate on backtest with -31.8% return says everything
Mikael L. 8 bear factors and 0 bull is basically the model screaming run. 47% win rate with -31.8% return means its been wrong and losing money simultaneously
Mikael L. 47% win rate with -31.8% return and 8 bear factors vs 0 bull. this model is basically just saying sell everything which in KAS case was correct
bro the targets literally say -100.0%. how is that a valid analysis lmao
dust_collector_ -100% target is just the model extrapolating the OBV trend to zero. aggressive but the 0.69 volume ratio confirms distribution not accumulation
DCA with 12 buys only lost 36% vs 41.9% lump sum. at these drawdown levels even DCA barely helps on KAS
0.69 volume ratio with OBV trending down for months. anyone buying KAS was fighting the trend not trading it
blockDAG narrative was Twitter KOL marketing disguised as tech. GhostDAG sounded cool enough that nobody checked if it mattered
47 percent win rate and still calling it a useful model. the aggregate signal matters more than individual trades on assets in freefall
47 percent win rate with negative 31.8 percent return means the model loses money more often than not. one correct KAS call doesnt redeem the track record
47 percent win rate with negative 31.8 percent return. the model was right about KAS but still lost money on individual trades
calling SELL at 0.03 when its already down 85% takes real conviction but the OBV confirmed it. distribution doesnt care about your entry price
kas_redux_ the vol ratio at 0.69 is textbook distribution. anyone who bought the blockDAG narrative without checking on-chain flow got cooked
85% drawdown from the 52W high and they still call SELL? at some point the risk/reward flips and KAS at $0.03 with that kind of tech is a buy, not a sell
ghosthash_prospector calling SELL at 85 percent off highs takes conviction but the OBV trend confirmed it. distribution doesnt stop just because price is low
ghosthash_prospector calling SELL at 85 percent off is easy in hindsight but the OBV confirmed it months ago at 0.15. distribution doesnt care about your entry
the 35k deployment plan is interesting but GHOSTDAG is still mostly narrative. show me actual TVL and real dApps, not just throughput numbers on a testnet
35k portfolio SELL call on KAS at 0.03 while its already 85 percent off highs. bold but the block DAG hype cooled off months ago
KAS at 0.03 down from 0.21. the GHOSTDAG tech is solid but tokenomics and exchange listings never matched the hashpower narrative
selene_k exactly. everyone bought the block DAG story and ignored that most mining rewards get dumped immediately. no buy pressure = slow bleed