Deep Dive Analysis
Kaspa (KAS)
2026-09-22 08:37 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.04
0.04
52W HIGH
0.19
0.19
DRAWDOWN
-77.5%
-77.5%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 48.8), vol 1.86x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.88)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
KAS Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.04
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 73.0 | ADX (14) | 48.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.03 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.92%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KAS | +55.1% | +49.2% | +13.5% | -11.4% |
| BTC | +10.9% | +29.0% | +5.9% | -11.5% |
| ETH | +13.2% | +41.9% | +20.0% | -18.4% |
| SOL | +16.8% | +49.5% | +26.7% | -20.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,473
RETURN
-28.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-44.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KAS | -28.4% | -38.2% | -44.7% | 58 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -11.4% | 16,337 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +3.6% | 31,065 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +9.7% | 32,921 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +16.3% | 34,887 |
KAS Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.03 (-19.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.89) |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.03 | -5.5% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.03 | -5.7% |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-17 | SELL | 0.03 | +2.3% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | 0.04 | +3.1% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 0.04 | +8.3% |
| 2026-09-22 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| END | SELL | 0.04 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-22 08:37 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Marcus sizing 30k into RSI 73 while telling us ATR is 6 percent. solid analysis, degen entry timing
in durden defense the plan does stage the buys. still, one look at that ADX chart and i halved my intended size on the spot
30k deployment into RSI 73 feels aggressive imo. splitting entries over a few weeks would let the overbought cool off
splitting entries is the move. if ADX 48.8 keeps holding you give up a little upside for a way better entry near the 0.03 retest
but if the 0.03 retest never comes you sit there with half a position in the runner. splitting cuts both ways, plenty of people waited for the q1 dip and never got it
waited for the q1 dip and never got it, relatable. i run quartered entries now specifically because of that kas run
this is exactly why i quarter everything now. missed the q1 run with cash on the sidelines, never again
adx 48.8 holding through rsi 73 with no pullback is the part that scares me. readings like that usually mean the first leg is already late stage
counterpoint on ADX 48.8 being late stage: OBV says accumulation, that is a different animal from a blowoff. the death cross is the actual bear signal in those 2 factors
quartering entries fixes exactly this. 7.5k tranches and the RSI 73 entry price barely matters anymore
agreed on splitting. half now, half at the 0.03 retest, turns a degen entry into a survivable one with ATR this wide
RSI 73 and ATR of nearly 6% daily. this thing either rips to 0.05 or chops you into paste
chops you into paste is right. ATR near 6% daily means your entry can be 5% underwater in a day, half sizing this one
0.05 or paste lmao accurate. the blockdag throughput is real but so is getting wicked out with 6 percent daily ATR
support at 0.03 is basically 25% below spot, your stop placement writes itself
0.05 or paste still the truest take in this thread. tho with the 52w high sitting at 0.19 there is more room than most here want to admit
ADX at 48.8 is a genuinely strong trend reading, most coins never see that. Still not chasing overbought though
ADX 48.8 is the strongest reading KAS has printed since the q1 run. 0.03 support holds or the whole thesis is invalidated, simple as that
a stop 25 percent below spot just means you bleed the whole way down. with 6 percent daily ATR, sizing smaller makes more sense than a museum-piece stop
museum piece stop lol. with 6 percent daily atr the stop exists so the risk column is not literally zero
blockdag throughput narrative is fine but 0.04 kas has been death valley for swing traders since spring. 0.03 retest or nothing
dagwatcher the 0.03 retest camp has been wrong since q1. quartered entries like tranche_sensei said, the retest may simply never come with OBV this shape
stage 2 uptrend and a death cross on the same chart is such a kas thing. 8 bull factors vs 2 bear and both bears are chart structure lmao
8 bull factors vs 2 bear and both bears are the same chart pattern telling one story is hilarious. ADX at 48.8 buys a lot of patience with death crosses tho
8 bull factors and the two bears are literally the same pattern family, somebody padded that list. still long from 0.038 so no complaints
Long from 0.038 while complaining about the scoreboard is peak Kas holder energy. Same entry here, riding the tranches until the death cross actually matters.