Deep Dive Analysis
LEO Token (LEO)
2026-09-18 09:31 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
8.89
8.89
52W HIGH
10.39
10.39
DRAWDOWN
-14.4%
-14.4%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 0 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (36.4), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 46.4), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.3)
LEO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 9.04
Low: 5.51
Now: 8.89
Low: 5.51
Now: 8.89
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 36.4 | ADX (14) | 46.4 |
| 50d MA | 9.37 | 200d MA | 9.66 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 8.72 | Resistance | 9.72 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.9%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| LEO | -5.7% | -9.3% | -11.8% | -1.7% |
| BTC | +0.0% | +21.8% | -5.2% | -13.9% |
| ETH | +2.1% | +35.5% | +5.3% | -19.1% |
| SOL | +1.5% | +41.0% | +9.7% | -22.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,506
RETURN
-30.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| LEO | -30.0% | +0.2% | -30.7% | 53 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (LEO)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -1.7% | 14,012 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -1.3% | 14,805 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -6.4% | 14,043 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.5% | 14,625 |
LEO Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 8.55 (-3.8%) |
| Target 1 | 9.00 (1.3%) |
| Target 2 | 10.00 (12.5%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-03-28 | BUY | 9.59 | |
| 2026-03-29 | SELL | 9.66 | +0.7% |
| 2026-04-24 | BUY | 10.25 | |
| 2026-05-10 | SELL | 10.08 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 10.19 | |
| 2026-05-16 | SELL | 9.94 | -2.5% |
| 2026-07-25 | BUY | 9.71 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | 9.41 | -3.0% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 9.68 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 9.61 | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 9.61 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 9.39 | -2.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-18 09:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
0 bull vs 9 bear factors, RSI 36.4, price 8.89 below both the 9.37 and 9.66 moving averages. AVOID is obvious. What confuses me is the plan showing targets at 9.00 and 10.00 with a stop at 8.55. Why hedge a SELL signal?
those targets are probably there because the template demands a deployment plan even on AVOID. agreed it reads weird next to a 0/9 scorecard
the targets and stop exist because the template forces a full plan even on a 0 to 9 scorecard. agree it reads like hedging a verdict already given
Joanna has a point on the 9.00 and 10.00 targets with a stop at 8.55. LEO at 8.89 is barely above that stop, so one thin order book wick and the SELL plan validates itself
The stop at 8.55 is the part nobody prices in. Only 3.8% below entry on a coin that moves 4% before lunch, this trade is a coin flip
3.8% stop on 1.9% atr is tight but thats the point of a SELL, you are exiting not entering. the coin flip framing only fits dip buyers
3.8% stop on a coin doing 1.9% daily ATR is like two days of range. youd need sniper entries for that to survive a week
its a coin flip you can skip tho. 0/9 scorecard says watch from the sidelines, the stop tightness does not matter if you never enter
skipping is a position too, only free lunch on a 0/9 scorecard. the 8.72 test decides everything anyway
LEO is a weird one for trend systems. Only -1.7% on the year while BTC did -13.9%, because the exchange keeps buying back supply. With 1.9% daily ATR you get 53 trades and a 40% win rate grinding down to -30%.
Buyback pressure is exactly why momentum lags here, the float quietly shrinks so signals fire late. Either way there is no case for deploying into a Stage 4 downtrend.
buyback point is underrated. running a trend system on a token with shrinking float is forcing it, the -30% backtest proves it
53 trades grinding to -30% is the saddest backtest ive seen all week lol. respect for publishing it tho
-1.7% on the year while btc did -13.9 is the whole LEO story honestly. shrinking float makes every trend system whiff on it
0 bull vs 9 bear factors is brutal. not often you see a scorecard that lopsided, props for not hedging on this one
ADX 46 with price under both MAs, that trend is real not noise. Anyone buying this dip is fighting the tape. Support at 8.72 is the line to watch.
down only 1.7% on the year while btc is down 13.9%, honestly could be worse for a hold. still not touching it tho lol
ADX 46 on a token the exchange keeps buying back, that is the rare trend signal i actually trust. 8.72 breaks and this gets ugly fast
52w high 10.39 and now 8.89, everyone calling the trend broken forgets LEO barely drew down last time buybacks stepped up. ADX 46 or not im waiting for the 8.72 test
8.72 test is the tell. if it holds there the whole sell thesis stalls on the spot, ADX 46 or not
LEO is an exchange token, half these trend signals get distorted by thin order books. Would want volume data before trusting a SELL here.
thin order book argument only works until Bitfinex actually executes another buyback tranche. float shrinks, wicks get thinner, SELL at 8.89 feels like front-running nothing
front running nothing is exactly it. bitfinex buybacks are scheduled, everyone knows the calendar, the SELL already priced it
Bitfinex publishes its buyback tranches, so the volume data exists. The float argument cuts both ways: signals fire late but drawdowns stay shallow too.
fair point, buyback transparency is real. shallow drawdowns also mean the SELL has less room to pay, 8.89 down to 8.72 is a rounding error
40% win rate across 53 trades and they still printed a full deployment plan. the template giveth
0 bull vs 9 bear and people are still arguing the dip in here. the scorecard rarely lies this loud