Deep Dive Analysis
NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
2026-07-26 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.80
1.80
52W HIGH
8.24
8.24
DRAWDOWN
-78.1%
-78.1%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (41.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.79)
NEAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.26
Low: 0.86
Now: 1.80
Low: 0.86
Now: 1.80
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 41.0 | ADX (14) | 10.6 |
| 50d MA | 1.99 | 200d MA | 1.58 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.74 | Resistance | 2.11 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.45%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| NEAR | -10.3% | -24.6% | +24.2% | -20.2% |
| BTC | +1.2% | -16.4% | -13.0% | -30.1% |
| ETH | +5.4% | -10.5% | -19.0% | -37.9% |
| SOL | -8.1% | -12.2% | -21.0% | -42.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
7,694
RETURN
-48.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-59.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| NEAR | -48.7% | -43.6% | -59.2% | 54 | 43% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (NEAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -20.2% | 9,149 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -1.9% | 14,718 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -7.5% | 13,873 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +1.8% | 15,276 |
NEAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.61 (-10.9%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (10.8%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (10.8%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 1.60 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 1.58 | -1.5% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 1.57 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 1.54 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 1.51 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 1.62 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 1.60 | -1.4% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 1.70 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.92 | +13.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 2.54 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 1.98 | -22.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-26 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
HOLD rating with 7 bearish factors and 2 bullish ones? at that ratio just call it what it is, a avoid. 78% drawdown doesnt bottom in a week
support at 1.74 held on the last wick, RSI at 41 is oversold adjacent. not saying aped in but bottoming thesis isnt crazy here
DCA with 12 buys actually returned +1.8% tho. lump sum got annihilated at -20%. timing matters even for dead coins
DCA outperforming doesnt mean the asset is good, it just means your entries averaged down a falling knife. strategy still did -48.7%
78% drawdown and they still call it HOLD. near at 1.80 is dead money until they ship something people actually use. nightshade sharding has been 6 months away for 3 years
RSI at 41 with OBV declining is not bottoming its just bleeding slower. i held near from 4 bucks and sold at 2.20. wish i sold at 4
2 bull factors vs 7 bear and the call is HOLD not SELL? feels like the system needs a recalc. near has been congesting at 1.70-1.90 for weeks with no volume