Deep Dive Analysis
Optimism (OP)
2026-07-26 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
2.77
2.77
DRAWDOWN
-96.6%
-96.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (39.4), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.48)
OP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.36
Low: 0.09
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.09
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 39.4 | ADX (14) | 14.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.10 | 200d MA | 0.15 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.09 | Resistance | 0.11 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.71%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| OP | -14.2% | -25.9% | -31.7% | -74.5% |
| BTC | +1.8% | -16.0% | -12.5% | -29.8% |
| ETH | +6.4% | -9.5% | -18.1% | -37.3% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -12.0% | -20.8% | -42.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,894
RETURN
-34.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-40.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| OP | -34.0% | -91.3% | -40.6% | 17 | 35% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (OP)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -74.5% | 1,876 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -65.3% | 5,207 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -60.0% | 5,998 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -53.8% | 6,925 |
OP Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-9.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.79 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.70 | -10.9% |
| 2026-01-10 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2026-01-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2026-01-12 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2026-01-13 | SELL | 0.37 | +18.7% |
| 2026-01-14 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2026-01-15 | SELL | 0.34 | -2.9% |
| 2026-01-16 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2026-01-17 | SELL | 0.35 | +2.2% |
| 2026-01-24 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2026-01-25 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-26 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
96.6% drawdown from the high. people who bought near 2.77 are never recovering this bag
15k portfolio allocation on a token down 96%? whats the point of even running the numbers at this stage lol
0 bull factors out of 9. thats the cleanest signal this system has ever produced. just sell
systems printing 0 bull factors on a 96 percent drawdown are describing capitulation, not a fresh short entry. every indicator red is what the bottom looks like. the top looked green too
bottom signals need a catalyst and op prints its own poison on a schedule. unlocks keep diluting whatever bounce tries to form. red across the board can stay red straight through it
capitulation_cal every indicator red is what bottoms look like, sure, but bottoms can take another year and another 40 percent. both things were true in 2015
stage 4 downtrend finally. been waiting for this system to actually call it instead of dancing around with HOLD on everything
-96.6% drawdown from 2.77 to 0.09. genuinely impressive how bad OP has been. retroactive funding really killed the token
Mei W. retroactive funding was the thesis in 2022 and it made sense then. nobody predicted OP would unlock 4B tokens over 2 years while shipping almost nothing new
OBV down and vol ratio 0.48 means nobody is buying this. the chart is just slow bleeding with no volume confirmation on any bounce
OBV down and vol ratio 0.48 means the only buyers are bag averaging. nobody is entering a fresh position on a token down 96% with 0 bull factors
RSI 39.4, MACD negative, death cross AND 50d falling. every single indicator red. this is a textbook short not a hold
OP at $0.09 down from a $2.77 52w high is a 96.7pct drawdown. even by L2 standards that is catastrophic. the token unlock schedule is the real killer here
drawdown_calc_ 96.7pct drawdown and they still have a deployment plan for it. at some point youre just donating money to market makers
drawdown_calc_ the unlock schedule alone adds 30pct+ to circulating supply annually. no demand model survives that inflation curve
the 15K deployment plan assumes OP finds a bottom somewhere. with OP Stack chains cannibalizing each other the token has zero value accrual
Noa Feldman OP Stack chains cannibalizing each other is the real story. more chains launching means less fees per chain means less value back to OP token
15K deployment assumes OP finds a bottom but with OP Stack chains cannibalizing each other the token has no value accrual
op_stack_kep_ even the chains paying incentives switched to stablecoin payouts quietly. when your own rollups dodge the token that says everything
the unlock schedule alone adds 30pct+ to circulating supply annually. no demand model survives that inflation rate
and thats before the op stack chains paying incentives in the token itself. emissions stacked on top of unlocks. its a supply machine with a governance sticker on it
0.09 from a 2.77 high and the bull case is still ‘fee switch maybe’. the retro funding taps ran dry and nobody rebuilt the demand side
fee switch maybe is carrying the entire OP bull case at 0.09. retro funding dried up and superchain fees get paid in stables now, the token has no cash flow story left