Deep Dive Analysis
Optimism (OP)
2026-07-26 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
2.77
2.77
DRAWDOWN
-96.6%
-96.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (39.4), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.48)
OP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.36
Low: 0.09
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.09
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 39.4 | ADX (14) | 14.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.10 | 200d MA | 0.15 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.09 | Resistance | 0.11 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.71%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| OP | -14.2% | -25.9% | -31.7% | -74.5% |
| BTC | +1.8% | -16.0% | -12.5% | -29.8% |
| ETH | +6.4% | -9.5% | -18.1% | -37.3% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -12.0% | -20.8% | -42.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,894
RETURN
-34.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-40.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| OP | -34.0% | -91.3% | -40.6% | 17 | 35% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (OP)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -74.5% | 1,876 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -65.3% | 5,207 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -60.0% | 5,998 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -53.8% | 6,925 |
OP Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-9.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.79 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.70 | -10.9% |
| 2026-01-10 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2026-01-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2026-01-12 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2026-01-13 | SELL | 0.37 | +18.7% |
| 2026-01-14 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2026-01-15 | SELL | 0.34 | -2.9% |
| 2026-01-16 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2026-01-17 | SELL | 0.35 | +2.2% |
| 2026-01-24 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2026-01-25 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-26 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
96.6% drawdown from the high. people who bought near 2.77 are never recovering this bag
15k portfolio allocation on a token down 96%? whats the point of even running the numbers at this stage lol
0 bull factors out of 9. thats the cleanest signal this system has ever produced. just sell
stage 4 downtrend finally. been waiting for this system to actually call it instead of dancing around with HOLD on everything
-96.6% drawdown from 2.77 to 0.09. genuinely impressive how bad OP has been. retroactive funding really killed the token
OBV down and vol ratio 0.48 means nobody is buying this. the chart is just slow bleeding with no volume confirmation on any bounce
RSI 39.4, MACD negative, death cross AND 50d falling. every single indicator red. this is a textbook short not a hold