Deep Dive Analysis
Pyth Network (PYTH)
2026-07-24 09:31 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.05
0.05
52W HIGH
0.55
0.55
DRAWDOWN
-91.7%
-91.7%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (53.3), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 42.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.5)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high
PYTH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.09
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.05
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.05
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 53.3 | ADX (14) | 42.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.04 | 200d MA | 0.05 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.05 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.22%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PYTH | +16.6% | +15.3% | -5.5% | -50.0% |
| BTC | +4.5% | -13.4% | -10.2% | -31.6% |
| ETH | +7.6% | -8.5% | -13.2% | -40.3% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -10.1% | -17.8% | -45.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
4,944
RETURN
-67.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-67.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PYTH | -67.0% | -76.5% | -67.0% | 33 | 24% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PYTH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -50.0% | 5,332 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.7% | 9,200 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -27.4% | 10,888 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -24.8% | 11,274 |
PYTH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.04 (-12.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-15 | SELL | 0.05 | +2.0% |
| 2026-07-16 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 0.05 | -3.7% |
| 2026-07-18 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-19 | SELL | 0.05 | -0.3% |
| 2026-07-20 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-21 | SELL | 0.05 | -0.8% |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 0.05 | -5.4% |
| 2026-07-24 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| END | SELL | 0.05 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-24 09:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
91% drawdown and they still rate it HOLD? just sell and move on lol
91% drawdown from the high and they rate it HOLD? at what point do you just call it what it is
the 50d is rising and OBV shows accumulation, so technically the short term momentum isnt terrible. but yeah being under the 200d is the real problem here
91% drawdown and HOLD rating. at some point you have to accept the thesis was wrong and the token doesnt have product market fit
the death cross at these levels is brutal. been holding PYTH since the airdrop and its just pain
DCA with 12 buys got you -24.8% vs lump sum -50%. cool so you only lost a quarter of your money instead of half. wagon circling at its finest lol
ADX of 42.4 is actually strong trend signal. question is whether the trend flips or keeps bleeding
ADX of 42 with a death cross is a contradiction. strong trend but in the wrong direction. the indicators are telling you to sell not hold
91% drawdown and DCA only got you to -24.8%. thats still losing a quarter of your money on an oracle token with no value capture mechanism
oracle_pain_ PYTH and LINK both prove that oracle usage and token value are completely disconnected. protocol gets used, token goes nowhere
15K deployment into a token down 91% from ATH with a death cross forming. this is how portfolios bleed out slowly
0xmeridian 15K deployment into PYTH down 91 percent is not DCA its denial. the ADX at 42 confirms strong trend and its straight down
ADX at 42 means strong trend but the trend is DOWN. holding through a 91% drawdown because indicators might flip bullish is copium
Tomasz G. DCA beating lump sum by 25% is cold comfort when both are deeply negative. the real question is why youre averaging into an oracle token with no revenue model
PYTH and Chainlink are the only oracle games in town and both tokens bleed. oracle usage doesnt translate to token value capture. structural issue
PYTH at 0.05 down from 0.55 is a 90% drawdown and theyre calling it HOLD? the oracle space is saturated with cheaper alternatives
Joona V. Pyth pulled feeds service is actually getting adoption on Solana. the price doesnt reflect the usage metrics at all
usage without value capture is the oldest oracle problem. until PYTH stakes or burns actual revenue the chart stays in freefall mode
oracle tokens dont capture value because oracles are infrastructure. you dont pay toll on a road to use it, same logic applies here
Sang-woo K. the road toll analogy is perfect. Pyth feeds power billions in TVL but the token captures none of it. infrastructure without a toll gate is just charity
worse than charity honestly. pyth pays publishers with grant incentives while token holders eat the dilution. value accrual has been a roadmap item since the tge
91% drawdown and the ADX at 42 just confirms what everyone thinks. the trend is brutally strong and its pointing down. DCA into this is just averaging into a value trap
ADX 42 with a 91 percent drawdown is impressive in a grim way. the usage stats keep climbing and the token just does not care, classic infra story