Deep Dive Analysis
Pyth Network (PYTH)
2026-07-24 09:31 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.05
0.05
52W HIGH
0.55
0.55
DRAWDOWN
-91.7%
-91.7%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (53.3), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 42.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.5)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high
PYTH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.09
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.05
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.05
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 53.3 | ADX (14) | 42.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.04 | 200d MA | 0.05 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.05 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.22%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PYTH | +16.6% | +15.3% | -5.5% | -50.0% |
| BTC | +4.5% | -13.4% | -10.2% | -31.6% |
| ETH | +7.6% | -8.5% | -13.2% | -40.3% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -10.1% | -17.8% | -45.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
4,944
RETURN
-67.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-67.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PYTH | -67.0% | -76.5% | -67.0% | 33 | 24% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PYTH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -50.0% | 5,332 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.7% | 9,200 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -27.4% | 10,888 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -24.8% | 11,274 |
PYTH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.04 (-12.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-15 | SELL | 0.05 | +2.0% |
| 2026-07-16 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 0.05 | -3.7% |
| 2026-07-18 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-19 | SELL | 0.05 | -0.3% |
| 2026-07-20 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-21 | SELL | 0.05 | -0.8% |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 0.05 | -5.4% |
| 2026-07-24 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| END | SELL | 0.05 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-24 09:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
91% drawdown and they still rate it HOLD? just sell and move on lol
91% drawdown from the high and they rate it HOLD? at what point do you just call it what it is
the 50d is rising and OBV shows accumulation, so technically the short term momentum isnt terrible. but yeah being under the 200d is the real problem here
the death cross at these levels is brutal. been holding PYTH since the airdrop and its just pain
DCA with 12 buys got you -24.8% vs lump sum -50%. cool so you only lost a quarter of your money instead of half. wagon circling at its finest lol
ADX of 42.4 is actually strong trend signal. question is whether the trend flips or keeps bleeding