Deep Dive Analysis
Sei (SEI)
2026-07-28 15:06 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.04
0.04
52W HIGH
0.74
0.74
DRAWDOWN
-94.2%
-94.2%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 0 Bull / 10 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (33.6), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, vol 1.47x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.76)
SEI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.15
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.04
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 33.6 | ADX (14) | 23.0 |
| 50d MA | 0.05 | 200d MA | 0.07 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.04 | Resistance | 0.05 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.6%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SEI | -10.7% | -34.7% | -32.9% | -70.9% |
| BTC | -0.0% | -16.6% | -9.5% | -30.8% |
| ETH | +6.6% | -9.0% | -11.8% | -37.6% |
| SOL | -9.1% | -12.3% | -17.5% | -46.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
25,409
RETURN
-27.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-45.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SEI | -27.4% | -81.6% | -45.9% | 27 | 37% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SEI)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -70.9% | 4,712 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -62.9% | 12,980 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -59.4% | 14,216 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -55.7% | 15,500 |
SEI Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.04 (-9.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-07-18 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2025-08-02 | SELL | 0.27 | -23.0% |
| 2025-08-04 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2025-08-05 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.0% |
| 2025-08-07 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2025-08-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2025-08-12 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-19 | SELL | 0.30 | -7.8% |
| 2025-08-22 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-24 | SELL | 0.31 | -3.7% |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.29 | -13.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-28 15:06 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
94% down from ATH and they still slapping a SELL on it. like yeah no kidding, anyone still holding SEI at this point is just coping
94 percent drawdown and the analysis still has to say SELL. if you needed a report to tell you that at 0.04 you are beyond saving
RSI at 33.6 isnt even oversold territory yet. this thing could keep bleeding
^ RSI under 30 is oversold, 33.6 is close enough that some degens will try to catch it. probably get rekt but thats crypto
10 bearish factors out of 10. thats actually impressive in a weird way lol
10 out of 10 bearish factors is almost comedic. like the token is perfectly engineered to go down