Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-09-01 10:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 5 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, RSI healthy (54.5), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 61.8), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.4)
Bearish factors: far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 54.5 | ADX (14) | 61.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 8.39%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +29.2% | +29.2% | -13.8% | -26.1% |
| BTC | +22.6% | +33.0% | -0.5% | -11.1% |
| ETH | +30.2% | +56.1% | +5.1% | -16.8% |
| SOL | +34.1% | +39.0% | +18.6% | -16.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
5,039
RETURN
-58.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-59.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -58.0% | -60.2% | -59.4% | 41 | 10% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -26.1% | 5,170 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -21.4% | 9,435 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -21.6% | 9,404 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -21.5% | 9,414 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-22 | SELL | 0.00 | -16.7% |
| 2026-08-23 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 0.00 | -16.7% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 0.00 | +3.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-01 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
stage 3 topping but adx at 61.8? thats a strong trend reading not a topping one, weird call imo
The system is trend following, so a high ADX cuts both ways. It just refuses to chase something this far below its high.
backtest says -58% over 2 years with 41 trades and the verdict is HOLD? that chart is doing all the heavy lifting here
41 trades in 2 years is like 1.7 a month, the backtest barely had a sample to work with. still agree the HOLD is generous for -58%
rsi 54.5 and obv rising, ill take 5 bull factors over 1 bear any day. holding the bag
Holding since 2021 here. The 12k deployment plan at least forces discipline instead of aping it all at once.
5 bull factors and the verdict is still WAIT, thats the system telling you the factors disagree with each other lol. obv rising into a stage 3 top is textbook distribution
5 bull factors vs 1 bear and still only Stage 3 topping with WAIT. Respect the honesty, most analysis pages would flip straight to bullish on that ADX of 61.8
its the ETH comparison that hurts. +56% for eth vs -26% for shib over 1y while shib fans keep telling you the flip is coming
The 12k plan at least stops people averaging down into a -26% year. Discipline is the only free alpha left in a meme bag