Deep Dive Analysis
Sui (SUI)
2026-10-29 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.95
0.95
52W HIGH
2.51
2.51
DRAWDOWN
-62.3%
-62.3%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (42.9), far below high
SUI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.98
Low: 0.65
Now: 0.95
Low: 0.65
Now: 0.95
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 42.9 | ADX (14) | 15.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.99 | 200d MA | 0.87 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.92 | Resistance | 1.21 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.64%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SUI | -9.0% | +21.3% | +32.6% | -3.9% |
| BTC | +0.1% | +1.8% | +27.2% | +20.2% |
| ETH | -4.2% | -5.7% | +36.1% | +20.2% |
| SOL | -6.3% | -6.1% | +40.2% | +21.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
19,836
RETURN
+32.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-20.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SUI | +32.2% | -9.4% | -20.0% | 20 | 65% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SUI)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -3.9% | 13,596 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +24.4% | 18,660 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +15.3% | 17,296 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +19.0% | 17,848 |
SUI Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.90 (-5.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (5.7%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (5.7%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -6.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.19 | +17.8% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.26 | +8.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.17 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.15 | -1.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 1.18 | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 1.15 | |
| 2026-10-23 | SELL | 0.97 | -15.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-29 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
2 tranches with a 25% cash buffer is the right call at RSI 42.9. no edge means no rush, deploying the full 15k into a Stage 1 bottom is how people turn a drawdown into a story
the 25% buffer sounds prudent until the golden cross prints and youre re-entering 20% higher. splitting into 3 tranches per the DCA table captures both outcomes better imo
stop at 0.90 and targets at 1.00 feels tight, thats risking 5 percent to make barely 6. id want confirmation above the 50d (0.99) before touching this, the DCA table shows timing still matters a lot here
fair point on the tight 5 to 6 risk reward, but this is a Stage 1 bottom. worse entry in exchange for confirmation is the tradeoff, and a clean reclaim of 0.99 fixes the target problem anyway
3 bull vs 4 bear factors and a WAIT verdict, at least the system is honest about it. been chop between 0.92 and 1.21 for months, sitting on hands until a death cross or golden cross actually resolves is free
rsi 42.9 with the 50d at 0.99, this is a coin flip until sui closes a daily candle above a buck. hold verdict is right, just not sure a 1.00 target pays for the wait