Deep Dive Analysis
Bittensor (TAO)
2026-10-02 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
311.76
311.76
52W HIGH
497.77
497.77
DRAWDOWN
-37.4%
-37.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (63.5), rising 1m & 3m, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.47)
Bearish factors: far below high
TAO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 277.14
Low: 152.22
Now: 311.76
Low: 152.22
Now: 311.76
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 63.5 | ADX (14) | 23.7 |
| 50d MA | 249.09 | 200d MA | 246.63 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 217.85 | Resistance | 321.21 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.06%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TAO | +32.4% | +61.5% | +13.4% | +12.5% |
| BTC | +12.0% | +37.5% | +12.2% | -3.0% |
| ETH | +9.8% | +48.4% | +31.6% | -6.3% |
| SOL | +19.4% | +68.0% | +43.5% | -3.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
16,399
RETURN
+9.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-26.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TAO | +9.3% | +27.6% | -26.1% | 24 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TAO)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +12.5% | 19,144 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +33.8% | 20,075 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +36.2% | 20,427 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +37.9% | 20,681 |
TAO Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 275.82 (-11.5%) |
| Target 1 | 336.00 (7.8%) |
| Target 2 | 350.00 (12.3%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.8) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 261.64 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 318.86 | +21.9% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 314.66 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 287.29 | -8.7% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 296.28 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 317.78 | +7.3% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 321.21 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 319.65 | -0.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 308.13 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 300.57 | -2.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 300.83 | |
| END | SELL | 311.76 | +3.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-02 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
46% win rate on the backtest and you still recommend deploying? the DCA table doing 37% is the real takeaway here tbh
Different time windows tho. The DCA table and the 2yr backtest dont measure the same thing. +9.3% through a -37.4% drawdown year is the honest number
46% win rate is fine when winners run 2.4x the losers, thats the whole trend following deal. most of the entries die at 275, the ones that reach 350 pay for the batch
2.4x payoff ratio on a 46 percent hit rate, exactly. most people see the 46 and stop reading before the math
exactly, expectancy math people skip. 275 dies cheap, one runner to 350 pays for the lot. the 312 entry is paying up for optionality
ran similar numbers on tao, the runner leg is doing basically all the expectancy. without 350 in the model this is a coinflip with extra steps
the 336 and 350 targets line up with the jan resistance shelf too. the runner scenario isnt hopium, its structure
46% hit rate at 2.4x payoff is positive expectancy, thats the whole trend following deal. the DCA 37% buys you a -37% drawdown ride to earn it, pick your poison
46 percent with that R:R is the actual objection. the DCA table doing 37 percent with zero stop management is why the deployment exists, the single entry is a coinflip
RSI at 63.5 with a golden cross and price above both the 50d and 200d, finally a setup that makes sense. Resistance at 321 is the real test though, only about 3% above the current 311.
Agreed on 321 being the level to watch. Volume ratio of 1.47 and OBV climbing suggests it gets tested soon. If it clears, the 497 high becomes the conversation again.
golden cross on tao has been a fade more than a signal since 2024. agree 321 decides, but id rather wait for the retest than pay up at 311 with rsi already 63
fair on the fade stat but 2024 tao had no subnet revenue story under the chart. this push at 321 at least has fundamentals queuing behind it, weak ones maybe, but real
Sitting 37% under the high and it counts as Stage 2 uptrend. Momentum systems will do that to you, but RSI at 63.5 near the 321 resistance is not my ideal entry.
stage 2 only needs price above a rising 50d and 200d, it doesnt care how far off the high you are. but yeah, no entry until 321 actually breaks
Stop at 275 with targets at 336 and 350 is a reasonable structure. Took a similar trade off the 50d bounce in September, +7% and out. Discipline over conviction.
+9.3% on a 2 year backtest with a -26.1% max drawdown and people still call trend following useless. I would take that over holding straight through the drop to 152 any day.
12% risk from 312 down to the 275 stop, targets 336 and 350. ill take the worse entry after a 321 close instead of paying for a chase
The 37% DCA number is seductive but you sat through the slide to 152 to earn it. The signal version with a 275 stop gives up some upside and keeps you solvent. Both work if you actually pick one.
griffin momentum at 0.72 with price 37% off the high means this is a trend continuation bet, not a knife catch. stop at 275 makes it survivable if the 321 breakout fails
stop under the shelf is the right side of this trade. the knife catchers at 312 are one wick away from donating