Deep Dive Analysis
World Liberty Financial (WLFI)
2026-10-02 09:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.06
0.06
52W HIGH
0.21
0.21
DRAWDOWN
-73.1%
-73.1%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 2 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, rising 1m & 3m
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high
WLFI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.18
Low: 0.05
Now: 0.06
Low: 0.05
Now: 0.06
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.3 | ADX (14) | 8.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.06 | 200d MA | 0.07 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.05 | Resistance | 0.06 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.73%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| WLFI | +1.4% | +2.3% | -8.6% | -68.7% |
| BTC | +12.0% | +37.5% | +12.2% | -3.0% |
| ETH | +9.8% | +48.4% | +31.6% | -6.3% |
| SOL | +19.4% | +68.0% | +43.5% | -3.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,079
RETURN
+0.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-4.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| WLFI | +0.7% | -28.5% | -4.5% | 11 | 54% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (WLFI)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -68.7% | 8,582 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -12.0% | 10,558 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -6.2% | 11,257 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -5.1% | 11,389 |
WLFI Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.05 (-3.5%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-17 | SELL | 0.06 | +1.8% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | 0.06 | +1.3% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 0.06 | -0.5% |
| 2026-09-22 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SELL | 0.06 | +1.9% |
| 2026-09-26 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-27 | SELL | 0.06 | +2.1% |
| 2026-09-28 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-29 | SELL | 0.06 | -2.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-02 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
adx of 8.3 on a sell call is kinda funny, that trend is barely moving in any direction. the -68% over a year is the actual story here
^ exactly on the adx, 8.3 is basically a flat market, the signal is noise. still wouldnt touch it tho, support at 0.05 is one bad candle away from gone
Down 73% from the high while SOL did +68% in three months. At some point WLFI holders have to admit this only ever traded on a family name.
The comparison table is brutal. +2.3% in 3 months while ETH did +48.4%. Could have parked it literally anywhere else and done better
Kim D is right about the table, but the detail that gets me is support at 0.05 and resistance at 0.06. One cent of range on a token that once traded at 0.21.
0.05 to 0.06 on something that printed 0.21 at the top. the conviction slider on these reports needs a dead zone below adx 10
kim is right, that table should be framed. +2.3 while ETH did +48.4, you could have parked the money literally anywhere in the top 100 and done better
Literally anywhere includes dog coins with no treasury. The comparison table should be illegal
parked the same money in usdc and beat the +2.3 vs ETH +48.4 table by sleeping. wild that the bull factors are literally it went up a bit
2 bull factors vs 5 bear and they still labeled it medium conviction lol. even the 12k backtest says run
2 bull vs 5 bear and price below both MAs, and its still only medium conviction lol. the AVOID tag is doing all the work here
0.18 a year ago, 0.06 now, and the 200d sits at 0.07. just drifting above 0.05 support on an adx of 8.3, nothing here until real volume shows up
-68.7% over a year and the 2 bull factors are literally just ‘it went up a bit recently’. hard pass sums it up
strategy returned +0.7% over two years of simulated trading. thats a savings account with extra steps lol
savings account with extra steps and a 12k minimum lol. even the bear factors list reads like a checklist for a token bleeding out
the 12k minimum is my favorite part, as if allocation size fixes a chart that only knows one direction
the 12k minimum exists so the backtest has enough size to underperform harder lol
medium conviction on a chart with adx 8.3 and one cent of range between support and resistance. whoever calibrated the conviction slider needs new batteries
minus 68.7 percent on the year and my timeline still has people arguing the family name is the moat. its a meme with a term sheet
support 0.05 resistance 0.06 is barely a range, its a rounding error. even the sell call feels generous, AVOID was the honest tag
an adx dead zone below 10 would solve this overnight, half the tagged calls would just say no trade and be right
2 bull vs 5 bear factors with a minus 68.7 percent year and the plan still allocates 12k. sell is the only honest cell in that whole table
the honest sell call will also be the ignored one. wlfi trades on family name headlines, that fundamentals table has never mattered to its actual buyer
each family name headline probably moves the price more than the entire two year backtest did, which says everything about who buys this
medium conviction sell on something down 68.7 percent YTD is generous grading. AVOID was sitting right there and the report flinched